***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2018.-16.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 39.4 53.7 62.3 123.3 71.7 65.1 24.6 35.2 48.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 47.8 51.8 56.9 127.0 73.4 66.8 24.7 34.3 45.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 44.8 61.4 61.7 123.7 71.9 66.0 28.0 40.4 54.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 67.4 75.9 76.9 135.9 77.8 71.8 36.5 48.6 62.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 55.0 56.3 66.8 119.1 69.7 64.6 31.4 41.8 53.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 45 55 100 50.8 54.8 63.4 123.1 72.0 65.9 28.6 38.4 49.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 48.1 53.1 56.5 128.3 74.0 66.9 25.0 34.7 46.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 68.3 78.6 68.1 113.1 66.0 61.7 48.9 63.1 78.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 50.7 51.9 67.0 118.9 69.6 64.7 25.9 36.5 48.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 50.6 59.1 67.2 113.3 66.2 61.7 35.0 46.3 58.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 48.4 59.5 64.7 116.9 68.4 63.7 32.7 44.2 57.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 54.4 66.7 63.6 115.7 67.7 63.2 36.6 49.9 64.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 49.9 58.6 62.7 112.5 65.8 60.7 35.1 46.4 58.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 62.7 77.9 70.5 115.9 67.8 63.2 40.9 56.7 75.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 83.7 104.0 79.9 149.0 81.5 74.7 31.8 49.5 71.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 45.0 56.6 63.6 117.7 68.8 63.7 29.9 41.2 53.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 49.8 54.1 55.8 128.8 74.1 66.9 25.9 35.6 47.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 51.7 58.3 68.0 110.8 64.5 60.0 37.6 48.1 59.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 54.6 59.2 57.8 124.6 72.2 66.3 27.8 39.2 52.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 57.8 64.8 84.0 109.0 63.3 58.3 39.4 52.7 67.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 43.1 55.5 65.5 121.4 70.9 65.3 28.7 39.2 51.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 55.8 59.9 58.3 125.3 72.5 66.0 29.5 40.6 53.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 46 54 100 52.0 55.4 60.3 121.3 70.7 65.6 27.7 38.4 50.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 54.8 67.8 65.8 115.7 67.6 62.7 35.9 49.9 65.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 38.3 48.9 69.5 122.0 71.4 64.7 25.7 34.7 44.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 47.2 58.2 63.8 115.8 67.9 62.7 32.6 43.6 56.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 41.6 53.8 64.1 121.2 70.7 63.7 26.7 37.4 49.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 61.9 71.6 74.1 139.9 78.5 72.4 29.7 42.0 56.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 78.3 87.6 71.5 108.8 63.2 58.4 53.7 71.9 91.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 49.8 54.3 58.3 126.5 73.1 66.7 25.2 35.6 47.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------