***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.11.2017.-03.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 1.7 2.1 2.3 1.2 60.0 59.4 -0.3 1.2 2.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 2.3 1.8 2.1 1.3 61.4 60.5 -0.6 0.8 2.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 3.0 3.4 2.4 1.2 61.0 60.3 1.2 2.5 3.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 -1.2 -1.5 0.1 1.7 64.8 63.6 -4.5 -2.9 -1.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 1.1 1.6 0.6 1.2 60.5 59.9 -1.2 0.5 2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 0.6 0.8 -1.8 0.9 58.5 58.1 -2.0 -0.1 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 2.1 1.6 2.3 1.3 61.7 60.6 -0.6 0.7 2.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 -3.7 -3.6 -1.6 0.8 56.6 56.4 -5.7 -4.2 -2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 1.7 2.1 0.5 1.1 59.7 59.3 -0.2 1.3 2.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 1.3 1.4 -1.0 0.8 57.4 57.3 -0.8 0.8 2.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 0.9 1.2 -0.2 1.0 58.8 58.4 -1.4 0.3 2.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 0.1 0.3 -0.9 0.8 57.1 56.9 -2.2 -0.4 1.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 0.8 0.8 -1.1 0.7 56.3 56.2 -1.7 0.1 1.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 1.7 2.0 0.3 1.0 59.5 59.6 0.0 1.3 2.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 2.4 2.1 1.3 1.6 65.4 63.9 -0.8 0.8 2.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 1.8 2.1 -0.6 1.0 58.7 58.4 -0.5 1.2 2.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 1.7 1.4 2.2 1.4 62.7 61.4 -0.8 0.4 1.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 -0.5 -0.3 -1.4 0.9 58.0 58.1 -2.8 -1.1 0.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 1.4 1.8 2.0 1.2 61.3 60.5 -0.4 0.9 2.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 -2.9 -2.9 -2.4 0.7 55.8 55.6 -5.9 -3.7 -1.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.1 60.2 59.5 -0.5 1.0 2.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 1.8 1.4 2.2 1.4 62.7 61.6 -0.8 0.5 1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.2 61.1 60.5 -0.4 0.9 2.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 1.4 1.6 0.2 1.1 59.9 59.9 -0.1 1.0 2.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 1.7 2.1 1.5 1.2 60.2 59.6 -0.4 1.2 2.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 1.0 0.9 -1.1 0.7 56.0 55.8 -1.2 0.4 1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 1.9 2.4 2.0 1.2 59.8 59.2 -0.3 1.4 3.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 1.5 1.0 0.3 1.6 64.5 63.2 -2.0 -0.4 1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 -1.3 -1.3 -2.2 0.7 56.2 56.4 -3.4 -1.9 -0.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 2.6 2.0 2.2 1.2 61.0 60.2 -0.3 1.1 2.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------