***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.11.2017.-03.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 8.0 8.9 8.6 1.7 64.8 62.6 5.9 7.5 9.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 8.5 8.4 8.7 1.8 66.1 63.9 5.5 7.0 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 8.7 9.7 9.2 1.8 65.7 63.2 6.6 8.2 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 3.9 4.0 6.5 2.2 69.3 65.0 0.2 2.0 3.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 9.8 9.5 7.5 1.8 65.6 62.7 6.3 8.0 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.1 8.8 6.7 1.5 63.8 61.2 5.9 7.5 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 7.4 8.3 8.6 1.8 65.9 63.6 5.3 6.9 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 2.5 3.2 7.0 1.6 65.3 61.9 0.4 1.9 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 9.3 10.3 8.4 1.8 66.0 62.9 7.0 8.7 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.7 9.5 7.7 1.7 64.9 61.7 6.4 8.1 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.8 9.6 7.8 1.6 64.1 61.5 6.3 8.1 9.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.8 9.7 7.3 1.6 65.0 62.0 6.5 8.2 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.0 9.5 7.3 1.3 61.6 59.6 6.4 8.2 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 9.1 9.9 8.9 1.8 65.0 62.0 6.8 8.5 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 7.8 7.9 7.7 2.3 71.4 66.9 5.2 6.4 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 9.5 10.2 7.3 1.5 63.3 60.9 7.0 8.8 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 7.8 7.7 8.4 1.8 66.3 63.7 4.8 6.3 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 6.5 7.2 7.5 1.6 64.2 61.1 4.6 6.0 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 8.9 8.7 8.9 1.9 66.1 63.9 5.8 7.3 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 6.7 6.3 6.0 1.5 64.6 61.2 3.0 4.8 6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 8.8 9.8 8.9 1.7 65.4 62.7 6.6 8.2 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 7.4 8.2 8.5 1.7 65.5 63.3 5.4 6.9 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 8.0 8.9 9.2 1.9 66.0 63.7 5.9 7.4 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 9.5 10.3 8.7 1.7 64.5 61.7 7.3 8.9 10.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 7.6 8.4 7.6 1.7 65.4 62.7 5.6 7.1 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 9.9 9.5 6.7 1.5 65.5 62.5 6.6 8.1 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 8.7 9.6 8.2 1.6 64.2 62.0 6.5 8.2 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 8.4 8.5 7.2 2.2 69.3 64.9 5.4 6.8 8.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 5.6 6.2 6.9 1.5 63.2 60.4 3.4 5.0 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 7.7 8.6 8.8 1.8 65.9 63.7 5.7 7.2 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------