***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.12.2017.-10.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 7.8 7.5 7.1 1.5 64.8 63.0 4.0 5.8 7.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 6.8 6.7 7.1 1.8 66.6 64.5 3.2 5.0 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 8.4 8.1 7.5 1.6 64.6 62.8 4.4 6.4 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 3.9 3.6 4.8 1.6 65.6 63.3 -0.3 1.8 3.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 7.1 7.8 5.6 1.2 62.5 61.0 4.5 6.4 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 6.6 6.7 4.9 0.8 57.7 57.4 4.2 6.0 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 6.5 6.4 7.0 1.7 66.2 64.3 3.1 4.8 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 1.7 1.8 4.8 0.6 56.7 56.4 -0.8 1.0 2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 7.8 8.4 6.3 1.2 61.6 60.2 5.1 7.1 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 6.8 7.0 5.5 0.8 58.5 57.7 4.4 6.2 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 7.0 7.6 5.5 1.1 60.9 59.6 4.5 6.4 8.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 7.3 7.5 5.1 0.8 58.3 57.7 4.7 6.6 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 6.9 7.0 4.7 0.6 56.4 56.4 4.5 6.3 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 7.7 8.1 6.5 1.0 59.6 58.2 4.8 6.9 8.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 6.9 6.7 5.7 1.7 67.3 65.1 3.8 5.2 6.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 7.4 7.9 5.2 1.0 60.2 59.0 4.9 6.8 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 6.2 6.1 7.0 1.7 66.5 64.4 2.9 4.5 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 5.2 5.2 5.4 0.7 56.5 56.1 3.0 4.6 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 7.4 7.4 7.4 1.8 66.3 64.2 3.5 5.5 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 4.6 4.2 3.5 0.3 52.7 53.4 2.0 3.9 5.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 7.0 7.8 6.9 1.4 63.3 61.7 4.5 6.4 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 7.1 6.9 7.0 1.7 66.2 64.1 3.4 5.2 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 7.5 7.2 7.6 1.7 65.2 63.0 3.9 5.6 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 7.9 8.3 6.5 1.0 59.8 58.5 5.1 7.2 9.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 7.1 6.8 5.7 1.4 64.1 62.2 3.7 5.4 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.2 4.3 0.4 54.3 54.9 4.5 5.9 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 8.0 7.7 6.6 1.4 64.3 62.4 4.3 6.1 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 7.7 7.4 5.3 1.6 65.5 63.3 4.2 5.9 7.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 4.4 4.2 4.7 0.5 54.5 54.6 1.8 3.7 5.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 45 55 100 6.8 6.7 7.1 1.7 66.1 64.2 3.3 5.1 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------