***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.11.2017.-17.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 8.0 7.9 7.7 1.4 67.3 65.0 5.6 6.7 7.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 7.3 7.3 7.8 1.5 68.3 66.1 5.0 6.1 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 8.7 8.6 8.2 1.5 68.0 65.6 6.2 7.4 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 3.3 3.4 5.3 1.6 71.0 67.2 0.7 1.9 3.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 8.6 8.3 6.2 1.2 65.2 62.9 6.0 7.3 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 8.0 7.3 5.3 0.7 59.6 58.6 5.6 6.7 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 7.1 7.0 7.6 1.4 67.4 65.3 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 1.7 2.0 5.5 0.8 61.3 59.6 0.1 1.2 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 9.3 9.1 7.2 1.3 66.1 63.6 6.7 7.9 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 7.6 8.0 6.3 1.0 62.7 60.7 5.9 7.1 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 8.8 8.4 6.4 1.1 63.9 62.0 6.1 7.4 8.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 8.7 8.3 5.9 0.9 62.6 60.8 6.3 7.5 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.9 8.0 5.8 0.6 58.4 57.8 6.1 7.4 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 8.2 8.8 7.7 1.2 64.7 62.5 6.5 7.7 8.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 7.1 7.4 6.6 1.8 74.4 69.7 4.8 5.9 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 9.3 8.8 5.9 0.9 62.0 60.6 6.7 7.9 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 6.7 6.6 7.5 1.4 67.5 65.3 4.5 5.5 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 5.7 5.9 6.1 0.8 60.2 58.8 4.3 5.3 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 7.7 7.7 8.0 1.6 68.7 66.4 5.3 6.5 7.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 4.9 4.9 4.3 0.4 56.0 55.5 3.2 4.4 5.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 8.8 8.6 7.7 1.3 66.7 64.2 6.3 7.5 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 7.4 7.2 7.6 1.4 67.4 65.3 5.0 6.1 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 7.7 7.7 8.3 1.6 68.7 66.3 5.4 6.5 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 8.5 9.1 7.5 1.2 64.0 61.9 6.8 8.0 9.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 7.7 7.5 6.5 1.3 66.4 64.0 5.3 6.4 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 7.3 7.4 5.0 0.5 57.7 57.2 5.9 6.9 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 8.6 8.4 7.2 1.2 65.7 63.6 6.1 7.3 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 7.7 7.9 6.0 1.7 71.2 67.3 5.3 6.4 7.5 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.8 5.5 0.6 57.9 57.0 3.0 4.2 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 7.4 7.3 7.8 1.5 68.2 65.9 5.1 6.2 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------