***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.11.2017.-26.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 8.4 7.2 7.1 63.2 52.2 46.2 3.4 6.7 11.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.6 6.0 5.9 58.3 48.9 41.4 3.1 6.3 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 9.5 5.7 5.9 52.5 46.8 40.2 3.0 6.6 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 12.8 7.5 6.8 49.9 44.5 38.3 4.6 9.1 15.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 9.1 8.3 8.5 69.4 54.1 48.2 3.5 7.1 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 12.1 10.2 7.9 67.7 53.1 45.0 4.6 9.2 15.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.5 6.1 6.4 62.8 51.1 44.1 2.8 5.9 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 7.1 12.2 7.7 56.9 47.7 40.9 6.8 13.2 22.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 8.4 6.2 6.7 58.2 48.8 43.7 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 9.6 6.9 8.1 63.0 50.4 44.9 3.0 6.7 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.4 8.1 7.5 60.6 49.8 43.2 3.8 8.1 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.7 7.5 6.5 51.8 46.4 39.2 3.9 8.8 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 11.9 10.0 9.2 70.3 53.5 46.4 4.0 8.7 15.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 6.8 10.6 7.2 53.9 47.1 40.0 6.1 11.7 19.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 3.1 4.0 3.7 27.9 33.5 25.4 3.8 8.6 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 10.1 7.2 7.8 62.2 50.6 43.5 3.1 7.1 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.6 6.5 6.1 60.5 50.0 42.1 3.1 6.5 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.5 9.1 8.4 63.0 49.8 43.7 4.8 9.1 15.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.0 6.9 5.6 54.0 47.0 39.1 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.6 9.6 9.6 60.6 48.4 41.6 5.0 10.1 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 8.3 6.3 6.6 56.5 48.4 43.5 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 5.0 8.6 5.9 55.1 47.1 38.5 5.2 9.3 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.4 5.5 5.5 50.1 45.3 37.4 3.0 6.7 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 12.9 8.2 7.0 56.5 47.8 41.3 4.2 8.9 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 7.6 8.3 9.7 76.4 57.9 52.8 3.3 6.4 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.2 8.9 7.1 55.3 47.7 40.7 4.8 9.6 16.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 8.2 8.1 8.5 73.0 56.3 50.4 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 3.9 5.3 5.4 41.5 39.9 32.3 3.8 8.2 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 21.1 14.6 8.8 63.0 49.6 42.6 7.2 15.0 26.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.3 6.7 6.1 59.3 49.9 42.5 3.3 6.7 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------