***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.11.2017.-03.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9.4 10.4 12.4 100.2 62.5 51.8 3.6 6.9 11.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.2 7.8 10.6 93.0 59.9 49.5 2.9 5.6 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.2 11.0 11.3 96.3 61.0 49.8 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.8 12.7 12.5 89.7 58.4 48.7 5.9 10.2 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.0 8.7 10.9 82.8 54.5 44.7 3.6 7.4 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.6 6.3 9.7 75.8 51.3 44.4 3.4 6.0 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.7 7.8 9.9 88.0 58.1 48.1 3.4 6.1 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 7.0 13.7 12.1 88.0 56.7 47.4 6.8 11.4 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 9.7 10.7 12.9 101.5 62.6 52.5 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.2 12.2 12.5 95.4 59.8 49.8 4.8 9.0 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 11.7 9.2 10.7 81.6 53.0 44.7 4.0 8.2 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.4 11.2 11.0 83.2 54.5 46.6 4.5 9.5 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 5.0 7.0 8.3 59.6 42.4 36.3 5.0 8.9 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.0 14.4 15.5 109.2 65.5 52.3 4.8 8.9 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 5.2 10.9 9.2 66.8 50.3 39.0 5.0 10.7 19.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.0 7.3 9.8 74.7 50.4 42.8 3.6 7.2 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 8.4 7.5 9.6 84.1 56.4 46.4 3.3 6.1 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.1 13.3 13.8 101.0 62.2 51.8 5.1 9.2 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.2 9.3 11.3 98.8 62.1 50.9 2.9 6.0 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 4.9 12.3 15.7 88.7 56.9 47.4 4.6 9.5 16.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.3 11.8 12.7 103.0 63.3 52.4 3.7 7.5 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.0 8.1 10.8 93.6 60.2 48.7 2.5 5.5 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.0 9.2 12.3 103.5 63.7 51.3 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.4 13.2 13.7 104.7 63.7 51.9 5.0 8.9 14.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.8 8.5 12.4 88.3 57.2 46.6 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.3 6.8 9.7 69.5 48.4 41.6 3.9 7.2 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.4 10.8 13.0 98.6 61.6 50.8 4.1 7.6 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 5.7 10.7 10.2 76.7 53.2 43.6 5.2 9.6 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.9 16.7 15.0 98.4 60.8 50.8 6.5 11.9 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.3 8.6 11.0 95.1 60.7 49.9 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------