***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.12.2017.-10.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 7.6 9.6 14.2 110.3 66.5 55.5 3.1 5.7 9.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.3 10.1 13.4 117.9 69.2 54.8 3.0 5.5 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.9 10.2 13.4 109.9 66.3 54.8 2.8 5.8 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.5 10.5 13.3 96.1 61.4 53.9 4.0 7.4 12.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.6 10.1 14.2 105.1 64.3 56.4 3.6 6.5 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 6.9 8.7 13.9 106.5 64.9 56.4 2.6 5.3 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 7.7 10.0 13.1 115.1 68.5 54.6 3.2 5.9 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 10.7 12.7 15.4 105.8 64.4 56.6 4.9 8.5 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 7.2 8.9 15.2 108.7 65.5 56.7 3.1 5.6 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 8.3 10.6 15.8 109.5 65.6 57.6 3.4 6.4 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 7.7 9.2 13.9 106.5 64.7 57.1 3.1 5.8 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.3 9.7 13.8 103.9 63.9 56.0 3.1 6.2 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 8.7 9.6 13.6 97.9 61.5 53.8 4.3 7.1 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.7 16.6 17.5 120.5 69.8 58.3 4.6 8.9 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 9.0 9.0 11.8 85.4 58.7 49.1 2.5 6.1 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.6 9.0 13.6 104.5 64.2 56.7 3.3 6.0 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.8 11.7 13.1 116.2 68.8 55.8 3.6 6.6 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 11.6 10.6 16.7 112.3 66.7 58.2 3.3 6.2 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.9 10.7 13.7 118.6 69.3 55.1 3.7 6.3 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 8.6 10.5 20.0 106.2 64.8 57.0 4.0 7.0 10.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.4 10.0 14.3 108.1 65.5 55.6 4.0 6.7 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.7 13.4 13.9 116.7 68.8 55.2 3.8 7.3 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.4 11.5 14.1 117.4 68.8 55.4 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.4 13.4 15.3 112.8 67.1 57.0 4.6 8.2 13.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.6 7.7 15.4 105.5 64.7 54.9 2.7 5.0 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 9.0 10.4 14.3 103.9 64.6 56.4 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.9 10.2 15.5 112.6 67.2 56.4 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.1 7.7 12.3 93.3 60.7 52.9 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.6 16.4 18.0 113.1 67.0 58.3 5.4 9.9 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 6.8 9.0 13.3 114.4 68.0 54.3 2.8 5.2 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------