***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.12.2017.-17.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9.0 9.7 12.7 97.9 61.4 48.5 3.3 6.6 11.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.4 11.0 11.6 105.1 64.4 49.2 4.3 7.4 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 4.7 11.9 12.1 95.5 60.3 48.1 4.2 8.3 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 6.3 11.7 12.2 87.7 56.6 47.0 6.1 10.0 14.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 5.9 10.2 12.6 88.6 55.4 46.0 6.0 9.0 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.0 6.7 10.6 81.1 52.6 45.4 3.4 6.1 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 10.0 12.3 11.9 109.2 66.0 50.0 4.5 7.8 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 17.8 16.9 13.2 90.1 56.3 46.0 10.0 14.8 20.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.9 8.5 13.4 90.6 56.3 46.4 4.0 7.1 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 5.9 11.7 13.7 90.7 56.1 46.2 5.9 9.9 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.9 9.1 11.8 87.0 54.2 45.3 4.8 8.1 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.1 9.6 11.5 86.9 55.1 45.7 4.8 8.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.4 8.8 11.8 84.7 53.3 45.3 4.7 8.1 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 7.6 17.7 15.3 98.9 61.5 49.6 7.5 13.0 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.3 8.7 11.7 84.8 57.6 46.7 2.6 6.2 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 5.1 9.4 11.5 86.1 54.0 45.5 5.0 8.4 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 9.4 11.4 11.9 110.7 66.5 49.7 4.3 7.3 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.5 11.9 14.8 94.4 58.4 47.2 5.5 9.4 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.1 12.4 11.6 100.7 62.7 49.1 4.6 8.5 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 6.2 14.6 18.5 96.7 59.7 47.0 6.0 10.9 17.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.9 9.5 12.9 92.4 57.9 47.0 3.9 7.3 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 9.9 11.1 11.8 103.2 63.6 48.6 5.2 8.1 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.0 11.9 12.1 97.8 61.5 50.0 4.9 8.5 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 6.1 14.1 13.9 96.3 60.1 48.6 6.0 10.6 16.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.6 7.9 13.8 93.5 58.9 48.0 3.4 6.1 9.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.6 8.8 11.3 85.7 55.7 47.0 4.2 7.4 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.2 9.9 13.5 99.3 61.6 49.3 3.5 6.8 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.3 8.4 11.1 84.8 55.9 46.3 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 9.7 20.5 16.1 96.2 59.3 47.5 9.7 16.0 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.3 11.7 11.7 102.2 63.3 48.9 4.0 7.7 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------