***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.11.2017.-17.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 24.5 37.2 46.4 93.8 52.7 48.0 24.6 35.2 47.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 39.7 37.0 41.5 94.5 53.8 48.6 25.5 34.8 45.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 28.4 40.4 42.8 89.4 49.6 45.4 28.2 40.6 55.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 34.8 43.0 44.8 80.9 42.6 40.3 36.3 48.4 62.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 30.1 39.2 46.2 86.9 46.5 44.0 31.2 41.4 53.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 26.6 33.4 42.1 83.3 43.5 41.5 27.4 37.3 48.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 40.5 37.3 41.3 94.4 53.8 49.3 25.6 35.0 45.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 47.0 58.1 48.4 85.7 44.7 42.3 49.2 62.3 76.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 42.0 35.8 48.1 90.9 49.6 46.5 25.4 36.0 48.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 33.6 44.6 50.1 90.4 48.5 45.5 34.2 45.6 58.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 31.1 39.1 43.9 84.3 43.7 41.8 32.2 43.6 56.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 34.0 42.5 42.8 81.9 41.9 40.5 35.8 48.9 63.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 32.8 37.5 42.8 78.2 38.3 37.8 34.2 45.3 57.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 64.9 60.6 55.5 96.5 54.2 48.7 40.7 56.4 74.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 29.6 32.8 36.3 66.7 34.9 33.5 31.0 48.6 70.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 28.4 35.5 42.7 82.0 42.1 40.4 29.7 41.1 54.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 41.7 38.6 40.7 93.5 53.0 48.5 27.1 36.5 47.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 36.8 48.7 53.6 93.5 51.2 47.2 37.1 47.7 59.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 45.6 41.9 42.2 94.0 53.2 47.9 28.3 39.5 52.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 38.2 50.9 63.8 89.2 47.8 43.6 39.4 52.7 67.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 44.5 39.0 46.5 90.9 50.2 46.5 28.5 38.8 50.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 46.6 42.1 42.4 93.0 52.2 47.1 29.8 40.6 52.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 44.6 40.2 44.0 93.2 52.4 47.3 27.8 38.5 51.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 57.8 51.4 50.0 93.4 51.9 47.3 35.6 49.6 65.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 38.8 34.4 51.2 91.5 50.7 46.8 25.4 33.9 43.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 31.2 35.7 42.3 79.0 40.1 39.5 31.1 42.5 54.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 43.3 40.6 50.5 96.7 54.7 49.7 26.7 37.4 49.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 28.3 33.0 38.9 74.2 38.3 36.6 29.4 41.7 56.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 53.5 73.4 57.8 93.7 51.3 46.8 53.6 72.1 92.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 41.8 38.1 42.1 93.7 53.1 48.2 25.7 35.8 47.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------