***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.11.2016.-27.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 92 8 100 1.8 2.5 3.6 1.0 59.3 58.5 -0.1 1.6 3.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 90 10 100 1.5 2.5 3.5 1.3 63.1 61.9 -0.5 1.2 2.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 92 8 100 3.3 4.3 3.9 1.3 62.5 61.5 1.3 3.0 4.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 91 9 100 -2.0 -0.5 1.3 1.5 65.2 64.6 -4.2 -2.3 -0.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 1.0 2.1 2.5 1.5 64.5 63.7 -0.9 0.8 2.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 94 6 100 0.0 0.8 -0.4 0.9 60.0 59.6 -1.8 -0.1 1.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 92 8 100 1.4 2.0 3.1 0.9 58.7 57.6 -0.5 1.2 2.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 91 9 100 -3.8 -2.8 0.2 1.4 63.2 62.5 -5.9 -4.1 -2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 45 55 100 3.1 3.2 2.6 1.7 67.3 66.3 -0.1 1.6 3.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 0.8 1.9 1.1 1.5 65.1 64.3 -1.1 0.5 2.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 93 7 100 0.5 1.4 1.6 1.2 61.5 60.8 -1.3 0.3 1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 93 7 100 -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.7 56.9 56.4 -2.2 -0.6 0.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 95 5 100 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 48.9 48.7 -1.5 0.0 1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 3.0 3.2 2.6 2.0 69.1 68.1 0.0 1.5 2.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 2.4 2.5 3.1 1.7 68.5 67.8 -0.7 0.8 2.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 92 8 100 1.3 1.9 0.8 0.9 59.3 58.8 -0.5 1.0 2.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 92 8 100 1.2 2.0 3.1 1.2 61.9 60.8 -0.6 1.0 2.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 90 10 100 -1.2 -0.2 0.8 1.7 65.5 64.8 -2.8 -1.4 -0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 90 10 100 1.4 2.6 3.6 1.5 65.0 63.8 -0.4 1.2 2.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 45 55 100 -2.2 -1.9 0.2 2.2 68.7 67.9 -6.1 -4.1 -2.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 93 7 100 1.4 2.3 3.3 1.1 61.3 60.4 -0.6 1.1 2.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 92 8 100 0.8 1.8 3.3 1.3 63.4 62.2 -1.0 0.6 2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 1.3 2.6 3.7 1.7 67.4 66.3 -0.6 0.9 2.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 91 9 100 0.5 1.6 2.2 1.5 64.8 64.0 -1.2 0.3 1.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 93 7 100 1.5 2.3 3.1 1.0 60.3 59.5 -0.3 1.3 2.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 93 7 100 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.3 53.5 53.1 -1.1 0.4 1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 2.0 2.2 2.9 0.5 54.6 54.0 -0.4 1.6 3.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 -0.1 1.1 1.8 1.6 66.8 66.2 -2.0 -0.4 1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 0.6 0.9 0.6 2.3 69.5 68.8 -3.2 -1.3 0.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 91 9 100 1.9 2.8 3.7 1.2 62.3 61.1 -0.2 1.6 3.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------