***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.11.2016.-27.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 90 10 100 9.0 8.5 8.1 -0.2 48.2 48.2 6.6 8.7 10.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 92 8 100 8.7 8.5 8.5 0.2 51.4 51.0 6.4 8.4 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 91 9 100 9.9 9.8 8.8 0.2 51.5 51.1 7.5 9.6 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 4.1 2.8 4.4 -0.7 43.4 43.6 1.4 3.7 5.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 9.9 9.5 6.9 -0.1 49.4 49.2 7.5 9.5 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 91 9 100 8.9 8.9 6.1 0.2 52.0 51.6 6.7 8.6 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 8.6 8.1 8.1 -0.1 49.2 49.0 6.3 8.2 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 90 10 100 2.9 3.7 7.3 1.2 60.8 59.9 0.9 2.6 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 10.6 10.3 7.8 0.1 50.5 50.2 8.1 10.3 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 9.6 10.1 7.8 0.9 57.8 57.0 7.2 9.2 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 10.2 10.0 7.6 0.2 51.7 51.3 7.6 9.8 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 89 11 100 10.0 10.1 6.9 0.4 53.7 53.3 7.6 9.7 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 10.3 10.3 8.0 0.4 53.3 52.8 7.7 9.9 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 90 10 100 10.5 11.3 9.2 1.1 58.4 56.8 7.7 10.1 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 93 7 100 7.5 6.6 6.1 -0.6 44.2 44.4 5.3 7.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 10.7 10.4 7.2 0.1 51.2 50.8 8.2 10.3 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 91 9 100 8.1 8.0 8.2 0.3 52.4 51.9 5.9 7.8 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 7.9 8.9 8.3 1.7 64.0 62.8 5.8 7.5 9.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 93 7 100 8.9 9.0 8.8 0.4 53.3 52.7 6.5 8.6 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 8.9 9.4 8.4 3.1 75.9 74.4 4.4 6.3 8.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 91 9 100 10.1 9.8 8.5 0.0 50.2 50.0 7.7 9.8 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 93 7 100 8.6 9.1 8.7 0.7 56.2 55.3 6.2 8.3 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 93 7 100 8.7 9.1 9.0 0.6 55.2 54.3 6.4 8.5 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 10.7 11.1 8.9 0.8 56.7 55.7 8.1 10.3 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 90 10 100 9.0 8.6 7.3 -0.2 48.4 48.4 6.9 8.7 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 93 7 100 9.2 9.8 7.1 0.8 58.4 58.0 7.2 9.0 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 10.1 9.5 7.9 -0.2 48.4 48.4 7.7 9.7 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 89 11 100 8.5 7.4 5.4 -0.6 44.2 44.4 5.9 8.1 10.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 8.6 9.0 8.8 2.8 72.0 70.5 4.2 6.3 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 92 8 100 8.6 8.5 8.5 0.1 50.9 50.6 6.5 8.4 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------