***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.11.2016.-04.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 8.0 6.8 6.2 -0.7 42.9 43.8 5.8 7.4 8.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 7.1 6.0 6.1 -0.8 42.3 43.4 5.2 6.7 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 8.5 7.2 6.4 -0.9 41.6 42.8 6.4 7.9 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 2.7 0.9 3.0 -1.1 39.9 41.3 0.2 2.0 3.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.4 6.9 4.7 -0.9 41.2 42.5 6.1 7.8 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.1 7.0 4.3 -0.4 46.1 46.8 5.8 7.4 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 7.1 6.0 6.1 -0.7 42.9 43.9 5.1 6.6 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 2.6 1.3 4.2 -0.8 41.9 43.6 0.5 2.0 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 9.0 7.6 5.5 -0.9 41.0 42.5 6.8 8.5 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.4 7.0 4.8 -0.9 41.2 42.9 6.2 7.8 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.6 7.0 5.0 -1.0 41.0 42.6 6.2 7.9 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.7 7.3 4.5 -0.8 41.9 43.5 6.3 8.1 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.8 7.4 5.3 -0.6 44.1 45.2 6.2 8.0 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 8.8 7.4 5.8 -1.1 40.1 42.1 6.7 8.3 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.7 5.6 4.3 -1.0 39.7 41.2 5.1 6.2 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.4 7.9 4.8 -0.8 42.7 44.0 6.9 8.7 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 6.4 5.1 5.7 -0.9 41.0 42.3 4.5 5.9 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 6.3 5.2 4.7 -0.9 42.1 43.9 4.5 5.8 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 7.4 6.2 6.3 -0.8 42.2 43.3 5.4 6.9 8.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 5.5 4.4 3.8 -0.3 46.7 47.8 3.0 4.8 6.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 8.6 7.2 6.1 -0.9 41.3 42.6 6.4 8.0 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 7.0 5.8 5.8 -0.9 40.6 42.0 5.2 6.5 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 7.7 6.6 6.4 -0.8 42.2 43.5 5.8 7.2 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 9.2 7.9 5.7 -1.0 40.4 42.3 7.2 8.7 10.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 7.4 6.2 5.1 -0.8 42.3 43.3 5.4 6.8 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.6 7.6 4.6 -0.4 45.6 46.5 6.5 8.0 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 8.5 7.3 5.9 -0.7 43.3 44.2 6.3 7.9 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.4 5.8 3.7 -1.1 39.6 41.2 5.2 6.7 8.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 5.6 4.4 4.5 -0.5 45.0 46.5 3.3 4.9 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 7.4 6.3 6.2 -0.7 42.7 43.7 5.4 6.9 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------