***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.12.2016.-11.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 6.0 4.9 5.7 -0.4 46.0 47.3 3.5 5.4 7.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.4 4.5 5.7 -0.3 46.8 47.8 3.0 4.8 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 6.8 5.8 6.2 -0.3 47.2 48.2 4.2 6.2 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 2.2 1.0 3.2 -0.3 46.7 47.6 -0.7 1.3 3.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 6.7 5.7 4.3 -0.4 46.3 47.3 4.2 6.1 7.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.3 5.1 3.9 -0.5 45.2 46.8 3.8 5.6 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 5.2 4.2 5.5 -0.5 45.3 46.6 2.9 4.6 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 1.3 0.1 4.0 -0.5 45.1 46.2 -1.3 0.6 2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.4 6.3 5.2 -0.4 46.0 46.9 4.8 6.7 8.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 6.5 5.4 4.6 -0.5 45.0 46.1 4.1 5.9 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 6.7 5.7 4.4 -0.4 46.3 47.4 4.2 6.1 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 6.9 5.8 4.2 -0.3 46.5 47.4 4.2 6.2 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 6.6 5.4 3.8 -0.5 45.4 46.8 4.0 5.9 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 7.3 6.0 5.6 -0.5 45.3 46.3 4.5 6.5 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.5 4.7 4.0 -0.3 46.8 48.0 3.5 4.9 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 7.1 6.0 4.1 -0.4 46.2 47.3 4.5 6.4 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.1 5.6 -0.3 46.7 47.5 2.8 4.4 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 4.9 3.7 4.4 -0.7 43.7 44.9 2.7 4.3 5.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 6.0 5.1 6.0 -0.3 47.6 48.5 3.5 5.4 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 1.4 2.7 2.8 -0.7 42.5 44.3 1.6 3.5 5.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.7 5.7 5.7 -0.3 46.7 47.6 4.2 6.1 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 5.6 4.8 5.8 -0.2 47.8 48.6 3.3 5.0 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 5.9 5.1 6.4 -0.2 48.1 48.8 3.5 5.3 7.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 7.6 6.2 5.4 -0.5 45.0 46.0 4.8 6.8 8.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 5.8 4.7 4.3 -0.5 45.6 46.7 3.4 5.1 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 5.9 5.1 3.7 -0.4 46.0 47.3 4.0 5.4 6.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.5 5.3 5.2 -0.5 44.9 46.3 3.9 5.8 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.2 5.2 3.7 -0.3 46.6 47.5 3.9 5.5 7.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 4.1 2.6 3.9 -0.7 43.2 44.8 1.5 3.3 5.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 5.4 4.5 5.7 -0.4 46.4 47.7 3.1 4.8 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------