***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.11.2016.-27.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 2.6 3.6 4.7 36.9 35.4 27.4 3.2 6.5 11.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 2.9 4.7 5.3 43.9 40.4 29.6 3.4 6.6 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 2.8 4.0 5.0 39.0 37.0 29.2 3.3 6.8 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.1 6.9 8.5 55.5 45.5 40.9 4.1 8.3 14.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 3.0 3.7 5.5 38.0 36.2 30.5 3.1 6.6 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.6 4.6 5.6 42.2 38.9 31.2 3.4 7.5 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 76 24 0 100 2.2 4.1 4.9 42.1 39.6 28.4 3.0 6.2 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 6.5 7.6 6.6 41.1 38.3 31.3 6.1 11.8 20.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 2.8 3.6 5.7 40.7 37.7 30.7 2.9 6.0 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 3.6 4.5 6.4 41.2 37.9 31.5 3.5 7.2 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.8 4.4 5.8 40.4 37.6 31.2 3.5 7.5 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.3 5.4 6.1 42.5 39.3 31.9 3.9 8.4 14.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 3.7 4.4 6.1 41.2 36.5 30.5 3.7 8.1 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 5.6 8.2 7.3 48.0 41.4 33.9 5.8 11.2 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.9 7.6 8.7 57.3 49.7 44.2 3.4 7.6 14.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.0 3.2 5.6 39.4 36.4 30.3 2.6 6.3 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 2.8 4.5 4.8 42.6 39.1 28.5 3.4 6.8 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.3 6.5 7.0 43.3 39.5 32.6 5.1 9.3 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 3.3 5.2 5.5 44.5 40.7 30.6 3.7 7.5 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 6.1 7.9 8.2 43.8 40.2 32.7 5.8 11.1 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 3.0 4.0 5.6 41.5 37.9 30.8 3.3 6.3 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 4.8 7.6 5.6 45.4 40.7 30.4 5.8 9.9 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 3.6 5.3 5.8 45.2 41.1 31.9 3.8 7.3 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 5.0 6.4 6.4 43.5 38.9 31.7 5.1 9.9 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 3.1 4.0 5.1 35.8 35.8 28.8 3.5 6.4 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.6 4.8 6.3 42.6 39.9 31.0 3.4 7.5 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 2.8 3.9 4.7 36.3 35.8 27.6 3.4 6.9 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 9.6 6.7 8.5 58.2 47.8 43.1 3.4 7.2 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 8.5 10.9 7.7 45.6 40.7 33.1 7.8 15.1 25.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 2.9 4.9 5.2 42.1 39.4 28.9 3.8 7.3 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------