***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.11.2016.-04.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9.9 11.7 12.2 101.5 64.1 54.5 4.1 7.6 12.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.6 8.1 10.1 91.1 60.8 50.4 2.9 5.6 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.1 12.0 11.9 102.1 64.2 54.9 3.6 7.3 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 13.7 17.1 15.4 109.0 66.5 56.2 6.0 10.7 17.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.7 14.2 14.6 110.9 66.8 58.9 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 8.6 12.2 14.6 116.6 68.7 59.7 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.3 8.7 10.0 91.6 60.8 50.3 3.7 6.4 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 14.0 17.9 14.8 109.8 66.0 59.0 6.2 11.1 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 9.4 12.0 13.4 106.9 65.3 58.2 3.2 6.9 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 10.7 13.6 14.1 106.6 64.9 58.5 4.1 8.2 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 17.0 14.9 14.5 110.7 66.3 58.7 3.7 8.0 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 13.3 18.1 14.3 111.2 66.4 58.3 4.3 9.5 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 11.5 15.9 15.7 114.7 67.7 59.4 4.8 9.1 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 10.5 12.4 14.8 100.1 63.1 53.7 4.3 8.1 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 16.5 25.0 16.6 121.0 70.6 56.6 5.1 11.5 21.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 10.5 14.8 14.8 113.7 67.5 59.2 3.8 7.8 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.6 9.1 10.0 91.0 60.5 49.1 3.3 6.5 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 10.3 12.7 14.1 103.1 63.5 56.7 3.9 7.9 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.4 9.2 10.6 93.9 61.6 51.5 3.0 6.1 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 11.6 13.8 17.6 102.6 63.3 56.9 3.8 8.3 15.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.1 12.8 12.7 102.6 63.8 55.2 4.5 8.5 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.1 9.6 10.7 95.3 62.3 51.1 2.7 6.0 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.9 11.9 96.1 62.0 52.3 2.6 5.7 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 10.5 12.4 13.4 101.2 63.1 55.1 4.6 8.3 13.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.9 10.2 13.9 99.5 63.4 54.0 3.1 6.4 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 14.7 16.1 16.6 129.3 72.5 61.6 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.8 11.1 12.7 98.4 63.1 53.5 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 12.8 18.5 15.7 118.7 69.5 58.1 4.7 9.4 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 12.8 15.6 15.4 102.4 63.2 56.2 4.6 9.6 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.2 9.1 10.6 94.6 62.0 52.2 3.3 6.2 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------