***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.12.2016.-11.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 9.4 12.2 17.0 147.3 77.1 67.2 2.8 5.3 8.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 10.8 12.8 15.1 144.6 76.5 65.3 2.7 5.3 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 7.2 14.4 15.8 140.6 75.5 64.6 2.5 5.5 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 13.2 16.1 18.1 150.7 77.7 66.9 4.5 7.7 11.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 13.3 16.3 18.3 151.8 78.0 68.6 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 9.8 12.6 17.1 154.1 78.4 68.4 2.3 4.8 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 10.6 12.9 15.3 144.5 76.6 65.9 2.8 5.4 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 15.9 18.2 18.0 143.6 76.2 66.4 6.3 9.8 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 11.3 13.1 18.6 148.5 77.3 68.9 3.1 5.7 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 14.1 16.4 18.7 147.9 77.2 68.2 3.4 6.6 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 11.8 14.4 17.3 150.4 77.8 67.7 3.2 6.0 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 12.0 14.5 16.6 146.4 76.8 66.8 3.5 6.4 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 11.7 14.8 18.8 159.8 79.7 69.2 4.2 6.9 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 18.0 21.4 18.6 143.6 76.3 66.9 4.6 9.0 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 7.9 15.1 16.1 135.3 74.3 63.0 2.3 5.5 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 11.1 14.3 17.9 158.2 79.4 68.9 3.5 6.1 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 11.7 13.5 14.6 139.7 75.3 64.5 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 12.8 15.1 19.2 146.7 77.1 68.3 3.7 6.7 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 11.4 13.7 15.0 143.1 76.1 64.8 3.4 6.2 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 12.2 14.1 23.3 139.9 75.3 65.3 4.7 7.5 11.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 11.8 14.0 17.7 148.7 77.4 67.8 3.8 6.6 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 13.1 15.5 14.7 136.7 74.5 63.6 3.7 7.1 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 11.2 13.7 15.5 141.0 75.6 64.8 2.9 5.7 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 15.3 17.8 17.4 143.8 76.3 66.9 4.3 7.9 13.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 9.8 12.1 19.6 150.8 77.8 68.6 3.0 5.4 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 11.5 14.4 17.6 149.2 77.4 66.1 3.7 6.5 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 11.1 13.7 18.5 150.8 77.9 68.7 3.4 6.2 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 10.2 12.8 16.8 151.1 77.8 66.4 2.5 4.9 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 20.0 23.2 20.3 145.0 76.6 67.8 6.2 10.8 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 9.8 11.9 15.4 143.7 76.3 64.9 2.8 5.2 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------