***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.12.2016.-18.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 15.3 19.1 13.5 152.0 78.6 64.7 4.1 7.8 12.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 12.8 14.2 10.9 141.0 75.6 64.7 4.3 7.1 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 16.8 20.0 12.6 143.5 76.3 63.9 4.5 8.8 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 17.5 20.5 14.7 153.0 78.3 65.8 6.4 10.1 15.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 14.3 15.6 15.0 142.5 76.0 65.2 6.2 9.1 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 11.9 13.6 14.0 140.0 75.3 61.6 3.6 6.5 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 13.8 15.2 10.8 139.4 75.2 63.4 4.7 7.9 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 22.6 24.3 15.4 144.7 76.5 63.9 12.4 16.2 20.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 13.7 14.7 15.4 138.8 75.0 64.6 4.0 7.2 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 17.8 18.7 15.5 137.6 74.7 63.9 6.7 10.5 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 14.7 16.4 14.5 145.9 76.7 65.2 4.9 8.1 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 14.8 16.4 14.0 143.9 76.3 63.2 6.1 9.2 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 15.6 16.8 14.5 137.0 74.6 62.1 6.5 9.8 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 22.4 23.1 14.3 123.3 71.0 59.8 7.9 13.3 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 17.5 21.9 13.8 151.0 77.7 63.9 3.4 7.6 14.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 15.3 17.0 14.3 143.9 76.2 64.1 5.7 9.1 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 11.8 13.4 10.6 139.0 75.1 62.8 4.2 7.0 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 17.7 18.2 15.4 128.5 72.3 60.9 6.9 10.9 15.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 15.4 17.2 11.2 139.2 75.2 64.5 4.6 8.1 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 20.8 22.9 19.1 135.6 74.1 62.2 7.9 12.6 18.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 15.7 17.8 14.3 141.3 75.8 63.9 4.5 8.2 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 12.0 13.1 10.9 137.2 74.7 62.8 5.2 7.8 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 14.1 15.7 12.0 134.6 74.0 62.9 4.3 7.7 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 20.3 21.0 13.9 126.7 71.8 59.7 7.4 12.1 18.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 12.6 14.9 15.3 146.5 77.1 63.7 3.7 6.8 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 14.4 15.6 12.8 132.3 73.5 59.9 5.0 8.4 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 14.4 17.5 14.2 147.4 77.4 63.7 3.5 6.9 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 14.0 17.0 13.9 153.1 78.2 65.3 4.0 7.3 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 29.1 30.4 16.2 127.6 72.0 60.9 11.6 18.0 26.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 14.9 17.3 11.5 145.3 76.7 65.7 3.8 7.2 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------