***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.11.2016.-18.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 42.6 45.5 47.4 105.1 61.6 56.5 27.0 37.4 49.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 37.0 39.0 41.4 100.3 59.2 54.5 24.4 33.4 43.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 47.5 50.1 45.4 101.8 59.9 55.2 30.1 42.0 55.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 53.1 59.8 56.8 111.2 64.8 59.5 36.0 47.8 61.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 46.4 50.2 53.3 106.5 62.0 57.7 32.0 42.0 53.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 41.5 46.5 51.4 109.4 63.7 58.2 27.2 37.0 48.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 39.2 40.7 41.0 100.3 59.0 54.1 25.3 34.8 45.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 67.2 70.9 54.8 104.0 60.5 56.5 48.8 61.9 76.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 41.2 44.7 53.1 105.7 61.6 57.3 27.2 36.9 48.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 50.4 53.5 54.7 104.0 60.4 56.5 35.5 46.2 57.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 48.3 53.2 52.1 106.7 62.1 57.7 32.2 43.6 56.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 53.5 58.0 51.0 105.6 61.5 57.0 35.3 48.1 62.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 50.9 55.6 55.0 108.4 63.0 58.0 34.5 45.7 58.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 61.6 65.4 55.0 100.8 58.6 54.8 41.8 56.8 73.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 57.4 66.8 55.3 110.5 64.4 58.5 29.8 47.2 69.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 47.1 52.3 52.6 108.6 63.2 58.2 30.4 41.8 54.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 40.5 41.5 40.0 99.3 58.5 53.6 26.5 36.2 46.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 51.8 53.7 55.6 101.6 58.7 55.0 37.5 47.7 59.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 43.3 45.4 42.4 100.3 59.1 54.6 28.0 38.9 51.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 58.5 60.7 68.2 101.9 59.2 55.4 40.3 53.2 67.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 44.7 47.9 50.3 105.2 61.4 56.7 30.3 40.2 51.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 45.7 46.8 42.0 99.1 58.2 53.3 30.3 40.8 52.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 42.1 44.2 45.1 100.2 58.8 54.4 27.8 38.0 49.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 57.2 59.1 51.2 100.2 58.3 54.4 38.6 51.8 66.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 38.7 40.5 54.0 104.4 60.8 55.9 26.6 34.7 43.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 47.4 52.4 53.3 108.6 63.2 57.4 30.6 41.9 54.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 43.4 46.2 50.1 104.9 61.2 56.2 28.0 38.4 50.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 47.2 55.8 54.9 114.5 66.6 60.7 29.4 41.3 55.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 79.4 83.1 59.7 101.5 58.8 55.2 55.2 73.1 92.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 39.5 42.0 42.7 101.3 59.7 54.9 25.2 35.2 46.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------