***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2015.-29.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 91 9 100 8.6 7.6 7.3 -0.6 44.1 44.7 6.4 8.3 10.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 8.5 7.3 7.1 -0.7 42.8 43.4 6.3 8.1 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 9.8 8.6 7.4 -0.6 44.0 44.7 7.3 9.3 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 3.5 3.3 5.1 0.2 51.8 51.8 1.1 3.1 5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 9.6 8.8 6.1 -0.3 46.9 47.3 7.2 9.2 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 8.8 7.9 5.3 -0.5 45.9 46.4 6.5 8.3 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 8.2 7.1 6.9 -0.8 42.2 42.8 6.1 7.9 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 2.8 1.9 5.1 -0.5 45.0 45.7 0.8 2.4 3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 10.4 9.6 6.9 -0.3 46.9 47.4 7.9 9.9 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 9.4 8.3 5.9 -0.6 44.8 45.5 7.0 8.9 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 9.9 8.9 6.1 -0.5 45.9 46.4 7.2 9.3 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 9.9 8.8 5.7 -0.5 45.4 46.1 7.4 9.3 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 10.0 8.8 6.3 -0.6 44.6 45.3 7.3 9.4 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 10.3 8.2 6.0 -1.4 38.2 39.2 7.5 9.7 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 7.6 8.4 7.2 1.0 61.2 60.3 5.4 7.2 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 10.5 9.4 6.0 -0.5 45.8 46.3 7.9 9.9 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 7.9 6.8 6.6 -0.7 42.9 43.4 5.7 7.5 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 7.4 6.2 5.2 -0.9 41.9 42.8 5.3 7.0 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 8.9 7.7 7.1 -0.7 42.8 43.5 6.6 8.5 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 6.6 5.3 3.9 -0.7 43.5 44.4 4.1 6.0 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 9.8 8.9 7.4 -0.4 46.4 46.9 7.4 9.4 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 8.6 7.4 6.8 -0.7 43.1 43.6 6.2 8.1 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 8.8 7.4 7.0 -0.8 42.0 42.9 6.4 8.3 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 10.3 8.9 6.4 -0.9 42.0 42.8 7.8 9.8 11.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 90 10 100 8.7 8.0 6.5 -0.4 46.3 46.7 6.6 8.4 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 9.2 8.6 5.6 -0.1 48.8 49.3 7.0 8.7 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 90 10 100 9.6 8.6 6.9 -0.7 43.4 43.9 7.4 9.3 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 8.2 8.4 6.1 0.5 55.2 54.8 5.9 7.8 9.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 6.4 4.8 4.4 -1.0 41.2 42.1 3.8 5.9 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 8.4 7.4 7.2 -0.7 43.2 43.8 6.3 8.0 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------