***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2015.-20.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 6.3 7.1 6.6 1.2 66.5 65.0 5.1 6.1 7.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 45 55 100 6.6 6.6 6.5 1.3 67.2 65.7 4.6 5.6 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 46 54 100 7.9 8.0 6.7 1.3 67.2 65.5 6.0 7.0 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 2.8 3.0 4.5 1.6 71.3 69.2 0.4 1.6 2.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 7.9 7.9 5.0 1.3 67.6 65.9 5.7 6.7 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 6.6 7.1 4.3 0.9 63.2 61.7 5.3 6.3 7.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 5.6 6.3 6.3 1.2 66.1 64.7 4.5 5.4 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 1.3 2.0 4.5 1.1 65.7 63.9 -0.2 0.9 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 8.6 8.6 5.9 1.3 68.3 66.3 6.3 7.4 8.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 45 55 100 7.6 7.6 5.1 1.2 66.4 64.5 5.6 6.6 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 7.2 7.8 4.9 1.1 65.0 63.6 5.8 6.9 7.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 7.3 7.8 4.7 0.9 63.2 61.8 5.9 7.0 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 7.2 7.5 4.5 0.7 60.1 59.2 5.8 6.9 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 47 53 100 8.4 8.2 5.9 1.0 63.5 62.2 6.2 7.3 8.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 6.5 6.9 5.4 1.9 76.8 74.3 4.5 5.4 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 7.8 8.3 4.6 1.0 63.4 62.2 6.3 7.4 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 6.0 6.0 6.2 1.3 67.0 65.6 4.2 5.1 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 5.7 5.6 4.9 1.1 64.9 63.2 3.9 4.8 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 45 55 100 7.0 7.1 6.6 1.3 67.4 65.8 5.1 6.1 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 5.1 5.0 3.5 1.0 65.8 63.6 2.9 4.0 5.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 8.0 8.1 6.4 1.4 68.1 66.3 5.9 7.0 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 6.7 6.7 6.3 1.3 67.5 66.1 4.7 5.7 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 45 55 100 7.0 7.0 6.6 1.3 66.8 65.3 5.1 6.0 7.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 46 54 100 8.6 8.5 6.0 1.2 65.5 63.9 6.5 7.6 8.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 6.9 7.0 5.4 1.3 67.9 66.3 4.9 5.9 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 6.8 7.0 4.2 0.7 60.5 59.6 5.6 6.5 7.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 7.1 7.8 6.0 1.2 65.8 64.4 5.8 6.8 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 7.1 7.4 4.9 1.7 72.6 70.4 5.0 6.0 6.9 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 4.8 4.6 4.3 1.0 64.1 62.5 2.8 3.8 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 46 54 100 6.6 6.7 6.6 1.3 67.0 65.5 4.7 5.7 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------