***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2015.-29.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 7.4 6.4 10.3 80.4 54.4 45.9 2.8 5.5 9.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.8 4.7 7.8 67.1 48.1 40.6 2.6 5.0 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.1 6.7 10.4 80.6 53.7 46.1 2.8 5.8 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.4 9.9 14.2 85.9 57.0 48.7 4.9 8.3 12.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.3 8.5 14.0 93.3 59.2 49.8 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.0 12.9 16.3 118.1 69.2 58.0 3.3 6.6 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.6 4.3 7.5 66.4 48.5 41.1 2.3 4.6 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 12.4 14.0 14.6 98.0 62.3 53.6 5.2 9.7 15.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.6 8.0 13.4 97.6 60.9 50.5 2.9 5.6 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.6 9.7 14.4 99.7 62.4 53.0 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 9.0 10.6 13.8 100.4 63.3 53.1 3.8 7.0 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 9.6 11.3 13.5 99.4 63.0 53.0 4.0 7.5 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 9.7 12.4 15.2 106.6 65.3 54.2 3.5 7.3 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.7 8.9 11.1 73.7 50.6 44.0 4.4 8.6 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.0 14.6 85.5 57.5 48.6 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.4 10.1 14.2 102.9 64.0 53.1 2.8 6.1 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.1 5.2 7.4 67.0 48.9 39.6 3.1 5.4 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.4 11.0 14.4 93.6 60.3 51.8 4.5 8.1 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.1 5.7 8.3 68.8 48.7 41.4 2.9 6.0 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 11.2 13.1 19.2 99.0 62.5 55.4 4.4 8.7 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.6 12.6 93.5 59.4 49.5 3.2 5.8 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.7 6.5 7.9 66.0 48.2 39.5 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 2.8 5.3 9.1 70.7 49.3 42.6 2.6 5.4 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.7 9.9 12.1 84.7 56.0 48.0 4.5 8.2 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 8.1 7.3 13.2 86.0 56.0 47.5 3.3 6.0 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.3 9.8 15.6 103.0 64.4 54.1 3.2 6.1 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 8.4 7.2 11.4 83.1 55.4 47.0 2.8 5.8 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.1 9.2 14.2 89.8 59.0 49.7 3.7 6.8 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.7 15.1 91.7 59.5 51.6 5.6 11.3 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.9 5.1 8.2 68.9 49.2 42.0 2.6 5.2 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------