***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2015.-13.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 2.0 4.1 9.0 72.1 50.6 39.0 2.2 4.1 6.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 2.2 4.7 8.6 71.9 50.6 38.5 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 2.7 5.5 9.4 72.4 49.7 38.0 2.9 5.6 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 3.9 8.4 10.6 71.9 51.4 37.8 4.6 8.2 13.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 3.6 7.8 11.5 80.4 53.8 39.1 4.3 7.0 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 2.0 5.9 12.9 91.9 58.8 41.0 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 2.6 5.8 8.8 75.0 52.7 39.6 2.6 5.2 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 7.6 12.9 11.9 83.3 54.0 39.0 8.3 12.0 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 2.5 6.0 12.2 83.6 54.6 40.0 2.9 5.3 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 3.6 8.1 12.4 84.4 54.3 39.6 4.0 7.2 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 2.7 6.5 11.2 85.5 56.0 39.8 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 3.6 8.1 11.2 87.4 56.4 39.5 3.9 6.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 3.5 8.2 12.4 91.4 58.5 40.6 3.9 6.5 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 4.1 8.2 11.5 72.1 47.3 36.8 4.6 9.0 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 2.5 6.4 10.5 67.9 51.8 37.5 2.7 6.0 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 3.1 8.0 11.5 88.2 57.6 40.2 3.5 6.3 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 2.7 6.3 8.5 73.5 52.9 40.0 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 3.5 7.0 12.9 80.1 51.1 38.5 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 3.3 6.0 8.7 70.7 49.2 37.9 3.4 6.2 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 4.9 7.8 13.3 71.4 47.8 37.2 5.4 8.2 11.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 3.0 6.7 10.6 77.8 52.2 38.9 3.6 6.2 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 3.1 6.1 8.4 69.7 49.6 38.8 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 3.5 6.4 9.4 71.5 48.5 37.6 3.6 6.7 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 4.2 8.5 11.7 77.7 50.2 38.0 4.7 8.4 13.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 2.5 5.1 10.3 72.0 50.6 39.2 2.7 5.0 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 3.4 8.3 11.7 84.9 56.0 38.5 3.9 7.0 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 2.2 5.0 9.8 72.9 51.1 40.0 2.4 4.7 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 2.6 6.1 10.8 74.6 53.2 38.0 3.0 5.6 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 6.3 10.8 13.0 74.8 48.5 37.5 6.9 11.3 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 2.4 4.9 8.6 71.4 49.9 38.2 2.6 5.0 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------