***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2015.-20.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 5.7 15.9 9.6 113.8 68.6 50.1 5.3 9.3 14.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 3.9 11.2 8.1 101.8 65.5 49.2 4.0 7.1 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 5.2 16.6 9.6 110.6 67.6 50.0 4.6 9.2 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 6.4 14.4 10.4 101.4 64.4 48.6 6.4 10.2 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 5.7 15.8 11.3 110.8 67.3 51.2 5.8 9.8 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 4.0 12.3 11.3 110.0 67.0 51.0 4.1 7.5 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.5 12.4 8.2 108.2 67.1 49.8 4.5 7.7 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 10.7 22.5 13.2 121.7 70.6 53.0 11.0 15.5 20.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 4.2 13.8 11.9 113.5 68.2 51.8 4.3 7.9 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 6.4 18.5 13.3 121.1 70.4 53.6 6.6 10.9 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 4.6 14.7 11.1 116.1 69.0 51.9 4.7 8.4 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 5.6 14.7 11.5 120.1 70.1 52.4 5.8 9.2 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 6.9 16.4 11.7 118.3 69.6 53.2 7.4 11.0 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 6.9 20.0 12.1 108.3 66.4 51.0 6.6 12.2 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 4.8 11.9 8.8 84.8 59.7 44.4 4.3 8.5 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 5.5 14.0 10.7 113.3 68.1 51.3 5.8 9.2 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.6 10.6 8.0 104.2 65.8 48.8 3.6 6.6 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 18.1 18.2 14.9 125.0 71.5 55.0 5.8 10.0 15.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.7 11.6 8.2 99.0 64.5 48.7 3.3 6.9 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 7.7 21.9 17.1 121.5 70.7 54.0 7.6 12.7 19.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 5.3 16.1 11.0 115.3 68.7 51.3 5.0 9.2 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.6 9.4 8.2 97.0 63.5 48.3 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 9.6 10.8 9.0 98.5 63.9 48.4 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 5.9 20.5 12.6 119.0 69.8 53.1 6.0 11.1 18.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 10.9 14.8 11.2 114.5 68.7 52.2 3.8 7.7 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 5.4 14.1 11.4 114.1 68.7 52.2 5.7 9.1 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.8 16.4 10.6 117.6 69.8 52.3 4.1 8.4 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 5.4 12.1 9.6 95.2 62.7 46.5 5.3 8.7 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 11.1 30.1 16.0 124.0 71.1 54.7 11.6 18.4 26.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.3 12.6 8.4 104.5 66.1 49.3 4.1 7.6 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------