***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2015.-20.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 27.0 30.9 38.5 80.1 39.8 39.3 27.1 37.0 47.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 23.8 27.6 34.9 76.1 39.0 37.7 24.7 33.0 42.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 30.2 35.5 39.7 81.5 40.8 39.8 30.4 42.1 55.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 35.1 41.0 45.4 78.8 39.4 37.7 37.0 47.8 59.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 34.1 41.8 47.6 87.5 45.5 42.7 34.8 44.3 54.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 26.6 37.3 49.7 93.9 50.7 44.8 27.5 36.8 47.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 24.3 29.2 34.8 77.8 40.6 38.8 25.7 33.9 43.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 67.0 61.1 51.1 91.6 49.2 45.6 50.2 61.4 73.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 42.5 36.8 48.9 91.3 48.4 45.1 28.6 37.7 47.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 52.7 47.9 51.7 93.1 50.1 46.2 38.1 47.9 58.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 48.6 43.5 45.9 92.0 49.8 45.6 33.7 43.5 54.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 53.0 47.7 46.1 93.0 50.8 46.2 36.1 47.2 59.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 35.4 47.4 49.1 94.9 51.8 45.9 35.6 46.2 57.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 41.5 48.5 48.1 81.9 40.8 39.8 42.3 56.1 71.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 28.0 32.8 43.6 70.4 33.5 32.8 32.4 48.4 67.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 30.6 41.3 45.7 91.6 49.6 44.8 31.1 41.5 52.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 24.1 29.6 34.6 77.8 42.0 39.3 25.2 34.0 43.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 37.6 47.4 55.5 91.8 49.2 45.7 38.5 47.8 58.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 26.7 30.3 35.6 75.8 38.0 37.2 27.4 37.4 48.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 60.3 51.6 65.4 88.5 46.8 44.4 42.0 53.7 67.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 31.2 38.4 45.0 88.1 45.7 43.4 31.4 40.9 51.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 27.0 31.1 35.5 75.6 39.3 38.0 27.4 37.3 48.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 27.0 30.2 38.3 77.3 37.6 37.2 27.6 37.2 47.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 40.1 49.6 48.8 87.8 45.7 43.3 41.0 52.6 65.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 41.9 33.1 45.7 81.1 40.1 39.7 30.0 37.7 46.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 30.1 39.5 48.3 91.0 48.6 43.5 30.7 40.4 51.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 28.9 33.6 42.2 81.2 40.7 39.9 29.0 39.4 51.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 28.8 35.0 44.1 77.6 39.1 36.9 31.2 41.9 53.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 55.7 69.9 58.6 89.6 47.4 44.8 57.2 72.3 89.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 24.7 28.2 35.4 76.5 38.7 37.8 25.3 34.7 45.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------