***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2020.-29.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 93 7 0 100 -1.9 -2.3 0.1 -3.1 14.9 16.3 -0.2 1.4 2.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 95 5 0 100 -2.2 -2.6 -0.2 -3.1 14.5 15.9 -0.4 1.1 2.6 30 Becej 27400G00 96 4 0 100 -0.4 -0.6 0.3 -3.0 15.9 17.1 1.4 3.0 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 -1.7 -4.1 -0.8 -1.1 35.1 35.8 -4.3 -2.5 -0.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 84 16 0 100 -2.3 -2.0 -0.5 -2.2 23.1 23.8 -0.9 0.7 2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 -2.0 -1.8 -2.0 -1.3 32.0 32.6 -1.7 -0.2 1.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 95 5 0 100 -2.1 -2.5 -0.3 -3.3 14.0 15.4 -0.4 1.1 2.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 -6.7 -6.3 -2.0 -1.7 28.5 29.1 -5.8 -4.2 -2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 -2.0 -1.7 -1.1 -2.6 18.2 18.9 0.0 1.5 3.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 -2.1 -1.8 -1.9 -2.1 24.8 25.5 -0.9 0.7 2.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 90 10 0 100 -3.0 -2.8 -1.3 -2.5 19.9 20.5 -1.3 0.4 1.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 90 10 0 100 -3.8 -3.3 -1.8 -2.3 22.7 23.1 -2.2 -0.6 0.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 -3.5 -3.5 -2.3 -2.8 16.3 17.0 -1.5 0.0 1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 93 7 0 100 -1.3 -0.9 -1.1 -2.4 21.6 22.2 0.2 1.6 2.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 -1.6 -1.2 0.5 -1.5 28.3 29.3 -0.8 0.8 2.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 90 10 0 100 -2.0 -1.6 -1.7 -2.3 21.2 21.8 -0.4 1.2 2.7 30 Nis 06700G01 94 6 0 100 -2.2 -2.3 -0.2 -2.9 16.6 17.9 -0.6 0.9 2.2 30 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 -3.6 -3.2 -1.9 -1.8 27.0 27.7 -2.7 -1.3 0.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 95 5 0 100 -2.0 -2.2 0.0 -2.9 15.7 16.9 -0.3 1.2 2.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -6.6 -6.4 -2.4 -1.6 30.7 31.5 -6.1 -4.1 -2.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 -2.5 -2.6 -0.3 -3.0 14.9 15.9 -0.5 1.1 2.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 93 7 0 100 -2.4 -2.5 0.2 -2.7 17.6 18.8 -0.8 0.6 2.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 92 8 0 100 -2.0 -2.0 0.1 -2.6 18.7 19.7 -0.5 1.0 2.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 91 9 0 100 -2.2 -2.0 -1.1 -2.5 19.9 20.7 -0.8 0.6 2.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 90 10 0 100 -2.0 -2.0 0.1 -2.7 18.9 19.9 -0.3 1.3 2.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 93 7 0 100 -2.7 -1.9 -1.8 -2.2 23.9 24.5 -1.0 0.5 1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 95 5 0 100 -2.2 -2.7 -0.3 -3.3 14.3 15.6 -0.2 1.6 3.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 -2.5 -2.2 -0.7 -1.4 30.3 31.3 -1.9 -0.3 1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 -4.1 -3.6 -2.5 -1.8 29.0 29.6 -3.2 -1.4 0.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 95 5 0 100 -1.8 -2.2 0.0 -3.1 14.6 15.9 0.0 1.5 2.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------