***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2020.-13.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 1.2 0.6 1.6 1.5 65.5 63.9 -2.8 -1.0 0.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 0.9 0.3 1.3 1.4 65.3 63.5 -2.9 -1.2 0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 2.2 1.7 1.3 1.2 63.3 62.0 -1.1 0.5 2.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 -2.8 -3.4 -1.1 1.4 64.6 63.0 -6.9 -5.0 -3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 0.2 -0.3 -0.6 1.3 64.2 63.0 -3.5 -1.7 -0.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 -0.5 -1.3 -2.3 1.3 63.1 62.5 -4.2 -2.5 -1.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 0.9 0.3 1.4 1.5 65.2 63.3 -2.9 -1.2 0.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 -4.4 -4.9 -2.0 1.4 64.2 63.4 -8.0 -6.3 -4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 1.0 0.5 -0.2 1.3 64.0 62.9 -2.6 -0.9 0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 0.3 -0.1 -1.5 1.4 64.1 63.2 -2.9 -1.4 0.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 0.4 -0.4 -1.2 1.2 63.1 62.6 -3.4 -1.7 -0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 -0.5 -1.2 -1.7 1.2 62.9 62.4 -4.1 -2.5 -0.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 0.0 -0.7 -1.9 1.2 62.5 61.8 -3.8 -2.0 -0.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 1.1 0.6 -0.3 1.4 64.2 62.9 -2.0 -0.6 0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 1.1 63.0 60.9 -2.8 -1.3 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 0.7 0.1 -1.6 1.3 63.1 62.5 -2.6 -1.1 0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 0.4 0.1 1.4 1.5 66.1 63.8 -3.0 -1.4 0.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 -1.3 -1.9 -2.1 1.4 63.6 62.8 -4.8 -3.2 -1.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 0.8 0.3 1.2 1.3 64.6 63.0 -2.7 -1.1 0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 -3.9 -4.4 -2.8 1.6 65.1 63.6 -8.2 -6.2 -4.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 0.8 0.3 0.8 1.3 64.1 62.7 -2.9 -1.1 0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 0.6 0.1 1.2 1.5 66.1 63.8 -3.0 -1.4 0.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 0.7 0.1 1.0 1.2 63.4 62.2 -2.7 -1.1 0.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 0.3 -0.2 -0.8 1.2 62.8 62.1 -2.8 -1.3 0.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 0.9 0.5 0.5 1.5 66.4 64.7 -3.0 -1.3 0.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 -0.1 -0.8 -2.0 1.1 61.4 61.1 -3.2 -1.8 -0.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 1.4 0.7 1.3 1.5 65.7 64.3 -3.1 -1.1 0.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 -0.7 -1.3 -1.1 1.3 63.7 62.2 -4.5 -2.8 -1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 -2.3 -2.8 -2.2 1.4 64.0 63.0 -5.9 -4.2 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 1.1 0.5 1.3 1.4 64.8 63.2 -2.8 -1.0 0.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------