***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2020.-29.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 5.5 5.8 7.3 -1.9 28.3 29.4 6.4 8.3 10.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 5.0 5.1 6.7 -2.6 22.9 24.3 6.3 8.1 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 6.3 6.4 7.5 -2.3 26.1 27.4 7.3 9.3 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 3.5 2.8 5.4 -0.2 47.2 47.5 1.1 3.1 5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 9.8 7.7 7.0 -1.2 36.8 37.7 7.2 9.2 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 8.7 7.5 6.6 -0.6 42.5 43.1 6.5 8.3 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 4.8 5.0 6.6 -2.5 23.1 24.4 6.1 7.9 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 89 11 100 2.7 2.0 7.2 -0.4 46.2 46.7 0.8 2.4 3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.8 7.8 7.4 -1.6 32.1 33.1 7.9 9.9 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 9.5 7.7 7.4 -1.0 39.7 40.6 7.0 8.9 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 10.3 7.4 7.4 -1.5 33.8 34.9 7.2 9.3 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 9.8 8.3 7.2 -0.8 41.2 42.0 7.4 9.3 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.3 7.3 7.5 -1.6 32.7 33.9 7.3 9.4 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 10.6 7.5 7.8 -1.8 33.4 34.6 7.5 9.7 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 7.6 7.1 7.0 -0.1 48.1 48.3 5.4 7.2 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.7 8.1 7.0 -1.4 34.9 35.9 7.9 9.9 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 4.4 4.6 6.3 -2.5 23.7 25.0 5.7 7.5 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 7.4 6.4 7.5 -0.6 44.1 44.6 5.3 7.0 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 5.3 5.3 6.9 -2.6 23.4 24.8 6.6 8.5 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 6.4 6.5 7.3 0.4 54.4 54.5 4.1 6.0 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 6.6 6.9 7.8 -1.9 29.5 30.7 7.4 9.4 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 4.9 5.1 6.6 -2.5 24.5 25.9 6.2 8.1 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 5.3 5.4 7.2 -2.5 25.1 26.4 6.4 8.3 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.7 7.8 7.8 -1.8 33.3 34.4 7.8 9.8 11.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.1 6.8 7.1 -1.2 35.4 36.3 6.6 8.4 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 9.0 8.1 6.9 -0.5 44.1 44.6 7.0 8.7 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 6.7 6.9 7.1 -1.9 29.5 30.6 7.4 9.3 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 8.3 7.5 6.2 -0.3 46.9 47.1 5.9 7.8 9.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 89 11 100 6.2 5.7 7.5 -0.1 48.7 49.0 3.8 5.9 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 5.1 5.2 6.9 -2.5 23.9 25.2 6.3 8.0 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------