***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2020.-06.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 4.9 5.9 6.4 -0.9 40.2 43.9 5.1 6.8 8.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 6.7 5.0 6.3 -1.0 39.6 43.3 4.4 6.0 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 5.2 6.3 6.8 -1.0 40.0 43.9 5.5 7.3 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -0.3 1.0 3.6 -0.9 40.3 44.3 0.1 2.1 3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 7.9 6.2 5.3 -0.9 40.4 44.8 5.3 7.2 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.8 6.2 4.7 -0.7 41.7 47.5 5.2 7.0 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.4 4.9 6.2 -0.9 39.7 43.3 4.3 5.8 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 0.1 1.4 5.1 -0.5 44.5 48.9 0.3 1.9 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 8.7 7.0 6.2 -0.8 41.3 45.5 6.1 7.9 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.1 6.7 5.6 -0.6 43.8 48.0 5.5 7.3 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.0 6.3 5.7 -0.8 41.1 45.6 5.3 7.3 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.4 6.7 5.3 -0.7 41.9 46.9 5.6 7.6 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.1 6.5 5.7 -0.8 41.4 46.6 5.5 7.4 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 8.6 7.0 6.6 -0.8 42.7 46.0 5.9 7.8 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.2 5.0 4.7 -1.0 38.8 42.9 4.5 5.9 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 8.8 6.9 5.3 -0.8 41.1 45.8 5.9 7.9 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 5.9 4.5 6.0 -0.9 40.0 43.3 3.8 5.3 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.2 5.7 -0.4 45.7 49.2 4.0 5.5 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.3 5.2 6.5 -1.0 39.7 43.5 4.6 6.3 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 2.1 4.4 4.7 -0.1 49.3 52.3 2.5 4.5 6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 5.2 6.3 6.6 -0.9 40.4 44.4 5.5 7.3 8.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.5 5.1 6.2 -0.9 40.4 43.7 4.4 5.9 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.8 5.6 6.7 -1.0 39.9 43.8 5.0 6.6 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 8.8 7.4 6.5 -0.7 42.9 46.6 6.4 8.1 9.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 6.8 5.3 5.5 -0.9 40.1 43.9 4.6 6.2 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.5 6.6 5.0 -0.7 40.8 46.8 5.8 7.4 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.9 6.2 6.2 -0.9 40.5 44.2 5.4 7.1 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 4.6 5.7 4.3 -0.9 40.1 44.3 4.9 6.6 8.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 5.4 4.4 5.4 -0.2 47.5 50.7 2.8 4.6 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 6.9 5.3 6.4 -1.0 39.7 43.5 4.6 6.2 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------