***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2020.-13.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 7.1 6.8 6.9 1.6 66.7 63.1 3.3 5.1 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.1 6.0 6.7 1.5 65.0 62.0 2.8 4.5 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 6.6 7.6 7.2 1.5 64.7 61.5 3.9 5.9 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 2.9 2.5 4.4 1.5 65.0 61.9 -1.2 0.8 2.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 7.9 7.5 5.5 1.6 65.5 62.4 3.8 5.7 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 7.1 6.8 5.3 1.8 66.1 63.6 3.2 5.0 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 5.0 6.0 6.8 1.6 66.3 63.2 2.7 4.4 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 1.9 1.5 5.4 1.6 65.4 63.2 -1.7 0.0 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 8.4 8.1 6.4 1.6 65.6 62.4 4.2 6.2 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 7.4 7.1 6.0 1.7 66.0 63.2 3.4 5.3 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 8.0 7.6 5.7 1.6 65.4 62.7 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 8.0 7.5 5.5 1.6 65.0 63.0 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 7.9 7.5 5.4 1.7 66.6 64.5 3.5 5.5 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 8.5 8.1 7.0 1.8 66.4 63.1 4.1 6.1 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.1 5.6 4.9 1.2 62.4 60.2 3.2 4.6 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 8.4 8.1 5.4 1.7 66.3 63.6 4.0 6.1 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 4.8 5.7 6.7 1.5 65.6 62.4 2.7 4.2 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 5.8 5.5 6.3 1.9 67.1 64.3 2.1 3.8 5.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 5.8 6.7 6.9 1.4 64.1 61.1 3.3 5.2 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 5.2 4.8 5.0 1.9 67.5 65.1 0.9 2.8 4.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 7.9 7.6 6.8 1.6 65.5 62.1 3.9 5.8 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 5.4 6.2 6.6 1.4 64.6 61.5 3.1 4.8 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 5.7 6.4 7.2 1.4 63.6 60.5 3.3 5.0 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 8.7 8.4 6.8 1.8 66.1 62.9 4.3 6.4 8.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 6.8 6.6 5.7 1.6 66.7 63.1 3.1 4.9 6.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 6.7 6.4 5.1 1.5 65.6 63.7 3.4 5.0 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 7.9 7.6 6.6 1.7 67.5 63.9 3.7 5.7 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 6.6 6.2 4.7 1.5 64.1 61.3 3.2 4.9 6.4 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 4.7 4.4 5.9 1.9 67.4 64.8 0.7 2.5 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 5.3 6.2 6.8 1.5 65.3 62.2 2.9 4.6 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------