***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2020.-29.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 91 9 0 100 1.4 0.6 1.6 13.0 12.4 9.8 2.8 5.5 9.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 95 5 0 100 1.1 0.5 1.4 11.9 11.2 8.9 2.6 5.0 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 91 9 0 100 1.4 0.6 1.7 13.4 12.8 10.3 2.8 5.8 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 92 8 0 100 2.8 1.4 1.9 12.1 9.4 8.8 4.9 8.3 12.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 91 9 0 100 1.6 0.8 1.7 13.7 11.9 10.1 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 87 13 0 100 1.7 0.5 1.4 11.2 10.5 8.8 3.3 6.6 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 94 6 0 100 1.0 0.5 1.4 12.4 12.4 9.6 2.3 4.6 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 92 8 0 100 2.6 1.5 2.1 14.1 12.9 9.4 5.2 9.7 15.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 92 8 0 100 1.4 0.6 1.7 14.1 10.9 9.5 2.9 5.6 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 92 8 0 100 1.6 0.9 2.1 15.6 13.1 10.3 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 91 9 0 100 2.0 1.2 2.1 15.9 13.4 10.7 3.8 7.0 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 91 9 0 100 2.0 1.0 1.8 13.4 12.4 9.0 4.0 7.5 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 90 10 0 100 1.8 0.7 1.8 13.3 11.8 9.7 3.5 7.3 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 93 7 0 100 2.1 1.0 2.3 15.2 12.4 10.0 4.4 8.6 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 94 6 0 100 1.8 0.7 1.7 11.1 10.4 9.1 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 91 9 0 100 1.4 0.6 1.7 13.3 12.5 9.9 2.8 6.1 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 96 4 0 100 1.5 0.8 1.3 11.6 10.3 8.4 3.1 5.4 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 93 7 0 100 2.3 1.3 2.1 14.6 12.1 9.5 4.5 8.1 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 95 5 0 100 1.2 0.4 1.5 12.3 10.8 8.7 2.9 6.0 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 93 7 0 100 2.1 0.9 2.0 11.2 10.6 8.1 4.4 8.7 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 89 11 0 100 1.7 0.8 1.7 13.4 11.5 10.1 3.2 5.8 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 96 4 0 100 1.6 0.5 1.3 10.6 7.3 6.7 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 95 5 0 100 0.9 0.4 1.7 13.2 11.2 9.1 2.6 5.4 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 91 9 0 100 2.4 1.3 2.0 14.7 12.5 10.1 4.5 8.2 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 90 10 0 100 1.8 1.0 1.9 13.9 13.2 10.6 3.3 6.0 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 92 8 0 100 1.6 0.8 1.5 11.0 11.0 8.2 3.2 6.1 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 91 9 0 100 1.2 0.6 1.7 13.3 12.9 10.0 2.8 5.8 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 92 8 0 100 1.9 0.8 1.7 12.0 10.6 9.3 3.7 6.8 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 94 6 0 100 2.3 1.1 2.1 13.4 11.4 8.8 5.6 11.3 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 93 7 0 100 1.2 0.5 1.4 12.0 11.9 9.4 2.6 5.2 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------