***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2020.-13.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 5.3 4.9 10.4 81.5 55.9 41.7 2.2 4.1 6.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.6 6.5 9.6 88.0 59.5 44.9 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.4 6.7 10.0 80.1 55.5 42.1 2.9 5.6 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 4.6 9.9 11.3 81.8 56.6 42.8 4.6 8.2 13.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.4 7.5 10.1 73.7 52.1 41.4 4.3 7.0 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.5 4.9 9.5 78.3 53.2 43.5 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.8 7.6 9.5 89.8 60.1 45.2 2.6 5.2 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.0 12.0 10.0 71.0 50.3 41.8 8.3 12.0 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.1 5.4 10.2 71.6 50.5 40.6 2.9 5.3 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.3 7.0 10.0 69.5 49.0 40.6 4.0 7.2 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.2 5.7 9.5 73.4 51.3 42.1 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 8.8 7.3 9.5 74.9 52.4 43.4 3.9 6.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.0 6.9 9.7 76.6 51.7 43.4 3.9 6.5 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.3 9.5 10.9 74.2 51.4 41.1 4.6 9.0 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.0 9.4 12.4 92.6 61.7 44.2 2.7 6.0 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.7 6.9 9.5 76.7 52.6 43.3 3.5 6.3 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.2 7.7 8.9 87.9 59.3 45.5 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.1 6.1 9.8 66.8 46.7 38.9 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.1 8.0 9.7 85.9 58.5 44.6 3.4 6.2 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.5 7.8 12.2 68.3 47.9 40.3 5.4 8.2 11.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.7 6.6 10.0 73.7 51.8 40.9 3.6 6.2 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.6 8.3 9.2 86.3 58.8 46.0 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.1 9.9 81.2 56.1 43.7 3.6 6.7 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.0 8.5 9.9 71.7 50.3 40.3 4.7 8.4 13.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.0 5.7 11.1 77.9 54.3 41.2 2.7 5.0 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 4.1 8.2 10.5 82.0 55.9 45.4 3.9 7.0 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.7 5.9 10.7 80.6 55.6 41.3 2.4 4.7 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.0 7.1 11.0 85.1 57.9 43.3 3.0 5.6 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.0 10.4 10.4 67.3 47.0 39.2 6.9 11.3 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.9 6.8 10.0 87.2 59.0 44.0 2.6 5.0 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------