***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2020.-20.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.7 10.2 91.8 60.7 46.9 5.3 9.3 14.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.2 10.0 9.1 92.4 61.5 46.5 4.0 7.1 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 12.8 13.6 10.4 93.9 61.5 47.5 4.6 9.2 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 6.6 14.9 13.5 106.0 66.2 51.0 6.4 10.2 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.5 15.4 13.6 107.3 66.2 52.0 5.8 9.8 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.3 14.0 14.1 124.1 71.4 53.8 4.1 7.5 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.7 10.6 8.9 92.9 61.5 45.7 4.5 7.7 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 10.7 20.2 13.7 104.0 64.9 50.3 11.0 15.5 20.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.2 12.5 13.9 105.0 65.1 52.0 4.3 7.9 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.7 16.0 14.2 105.0 65.0 51.8 6.6 10.9 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 5.0 14.1 13.4 111.1 67.4 52.7 4.7 8.4 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 5.8 13.7 12.8 110.3 67.1 51.5 5.8 9.2 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 7.5 16.3 14.1 118.3 69.5 53.5 7.4 11.0 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 7.2 17.9 13.6 98.0 62.7 50.4 6.6 12.2 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 4.5 16.3 14.6 114.8 69.3 49.4 4.3 8.5 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.9 14.4 13.5 115.9 69.0 53.4 5.8 9.2 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.7 9.3 8.9 92.3 61.3 45.0 3.6 6.6 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.8 14.2 14.0 97.9 62.3 50.6 5.8 10.0 15.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.9 10.7 9.5 93.8 61.9 47.4 3.3 6.9 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.1 16.2 15.7 88.8 59.0 47.1 7.6 12.7 19.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.0 13.3 12.0 96.7 62.1 49.2 5.0 9.2 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.4 8.9 9.5 93.8 61.7 45.9 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 9.6 10.4 10.4 95.5 62.4 48.2 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.6 16.3 12.7 96.6 62.3 50.2 6.0 11.1 18.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.7 11.5 11.9 93.7 61.4 49.0 3.8 7.7 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 5.7 13.9 13.6 113.8 68.2 51.2 5.7 9.1 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.4 12.4 10.8 94.2 61.6 48.5 4.1 8.4 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 5.3 14.2 13.8 114.9 69.1 51.3 5.3 8.7 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 22.7 23.6 14.2 93.1 60.5 49.3 11.6 18.4 26.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.5 11.0 9.4 92.9 61.6 46.3 4.1 7.6 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------