***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2020.-20.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 24.8 24.6 32.1 62.7 28.1 29.5 27.1 37.0 47.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 22.4 22.9 28.9 63.6 28.9 29.6 24.7 33.0 42.3 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 26.9 26.8 32.1 63.5 27.5 29.2 30.4 42.1 55.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 34.2 35.7 39.8 67.3 30.8 31.8 37.0 47.8 59.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 32.6 32.8 36.6 66.9 29.2 31.0 34.8 44.3 54.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 24.3 26.7 35.1 68.9 31.8 32.3 27.5 36.8 47.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 23.0 24.0 28.4 63.9 29.7 30.1 25.7 33.9 43.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 45.8 44.4 36.4 61.3 24.4 27.1 50.2 61.4 73.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 26.5 26.4 36.8 67.0 28.5 30.6 28.6 37.7 47.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 35.0 34.0 37.1 64.3 25.5 28.3 38.1 47.9 58.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 29.8 30.8 35.4 65.8 28.1 29.9 33.7 43.5 54.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 31.9 32.3 34.2 63.4 26.8 28.9 36.1 47.2 59.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 31.5 32.9 36.0 66.2 28.5 30.5 35.6 46.2 57.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 36.8 34.4 38.0 62.3 23.0 26.7 42.3 56.1 71.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 29.5 36.8 41.7 71.9 37.8 35.5 32.4 48.4 67.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 27.7 29.4 35.3 66.9 29.8 31.0 31.1 41.5 52.9 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 22.0 23.1 27.9 63.3 29.0 29.6 25.2 34.0 43.7 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 35.7 33.2 37.3 62.3 23.4 26.7 38.5 47.8 58.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 24.3 24.5 29.9 63.7 27.9 29.1 27.4 37.4 48.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 37.1 33.9 43.4 57.0 21.6 24.5 42.0 53.7 67.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 29.3 28.5 34.7 64.6 27.4 29.9 31.4 40.9 51.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 23.3 24.3 29.6 63.2 27.3 28.7 27.4 37.3 48.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 24.4 24.0 31.7 63.2 25.9 28.1 27.6 37.2 47.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 37.2 35.4 35.8 63.5 24.8 27.9 41.0 52.6 65.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 28.1 27.8 36.7 64.2 28.5 30.2 30.0 37.7 46.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 27.2 29.1 36.9 66.3 30.0 31.7 30.7 40.4 51.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 26.5 26.6 33.6 63.4 28.8 29.9 29.0 39.4 51.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 28.8 31.7 38.7 69.7 33.9 33.4 31.2 41.9 53.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 51.4 46.5 38.9 59.9 21.5 25.3 57.2 72.3 89.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 22.6 23.1 29.8 63.4 28.8 29.4 25.3 34.7 45.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------