***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.11.2014.-30.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 1.8 1.5 2.3 0.1 51.6 51.4 -0.2 1.4 2.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 1.7 1.9 2.3 0.5 58.2 57.0 -0.4 1.2 2.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 3.5 3.6 2.4 0.5 57.4 56.4 1.4 3.0 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 -2.1 -2.7 -0.7 -0.1 48.7 48.9 -4.3 -2.5 -0.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.1 51.7 51.6 -0.9 0.7 2.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 0.3 1.0 -0.9 0.7 61.8 60.3 -1.7 -0.1 1.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 1.5 1.7 2.2 0.5 57.8 56.6 -0.3 1.1 2.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 -2.5 -2.3 0.4 1.4 69.5 67.6 -5.8 -4.2 -2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 2.0 2.1 1.0 0.4 57.0 56.2 0.0 1.5 2.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 44 56 100 2.4 2.2 0.7 1.1 65.5 63.8 -0.8 0.8 2.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.4 56.7 55.9 -1.2 0.4 2.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 0.0 0.8 0.4 1.0 64.4 62.8 -2.1 -0.5 1.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 0.5 1.2 0.1 0.8 63.0 61.2 -1.5 0.0 1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 3.1 3.2 2.0 1.4 69.8 67.6 0.3 1.6 2.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 1.4 0.4 0.3 -0.3 44.8 45.2 -0.7 0.9 2.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 1.7 1.9 -0.2 0.4 56.5 55.7 -0.3 1.3 2.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 1.2 1.6 2.1 0.6 59.3 58.1 -0.6 0.8 2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 0.7 0.9 0.5 1.8 73.8 71.7 -2.6 -1.2 0.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 1.7 2.1 2.4 0.7 60.3 58.9 -0.2 1.2 2.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 -1.0 -0.2 -0.1 2.4 79.4 77.2 -5.9 -3.9 -2.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 1.7 1.5 1.8 0.2 53.3 53.0 -0.4 1.2 2.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 1.1 1.5 2.3 0.7 60.4 59.2 -0.7 0.7 2.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 2.7 2.4 2.4 1.0 65.0 63.0 -0.3 1.1 2.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 2.3 2.3 1.6 1.4 69.8 67.6 -0.7 0.7 2.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.1 51.5 51.3 -0.3 1.3 2.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 2.1 1.7 0.2 0.9 64.0 62.1 -0.9 0.5 1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 2.2 1.9 1.6 0.1 52.2 51.8 -0.1 1.7 3.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 0.2 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 46.5 46.8 -1.9 -0.3 1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 1.1 1.8 0.4 2.4 78.6 76.6 -3.1 -1.4 0.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 1.9 2.1 2.4 0.5 57.0 56.0 0.0 1.5 2.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------