***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.12.2014.-14.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 -0.4 -1.3 -0.3 -0.2 48.0 48.2 -2.8 -1.1 0.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 -0.7 -1.3 -0.5 0.1 50.8 50.4 -3.2 -1.4 0.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 1.0 0.3 -0.6 -0.1 49.2 49.2 -1.2 0.4 1.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 -4.5 -6.0 -3.4 -0.6 41.9 45.2 -7.0 -5.2 -3.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 -1.1 -2.3 -2.9 -0.4 44.8 46.9 -3.5 -1.8 -0.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 -1.9 -2.7 -3.7 -0.2 48.2 49.3 -4.2 -2.5 -1.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 -0.8 -1.3 -0.4 0.1 50.8 50.3 -3.2 -1.4 0.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -5.7 -6.2 -3.0 0.2 51.9 52.2 -7.9 -6.3 -4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 -0.3 -1.3 -2.0 -0.3 46.3 47.5 -2.7 -1.0 0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 -0.9 -1.5 -2.6 0.0 49.9 50.4 -3.0 -1.5 0.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 -1.1 -2.1 -2.7 -0.2 47.0 48.3 -3.4 -1.8 -0.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 -2.0 -2.4 -2.6 0.1 51.0 51.4 -4.1 -2.5 -1.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 -1.5 -2.1 -2.9 0.0 50.0 50.4 -3.8 -2.1 -0.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 -0.1 -0.2 -1.4 0.4 55.1 54.3 -2.2 -0.7 0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 -0.8 -2.2 -3.0 -0.9 38.6 42.7 -2.7 -1.3 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 -0.5 -1.4 -3.1 -0.2 47.0 48.0 -2.7 -1.2 0.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 -0.9 -1.6 -0.5 0.0 50.1 49.9 -3.3 -1.6 -0.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 -2.6 -2.8 -2.7 0.4 54.5 54.3 -4.7 -3.2 -1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 -0.6 -1.1 -0.5 0.1 51.2 50.7 -2.9 -1.2 0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 -5.3 -5.3 -3.6 0.6 56.2 55.9 -7.8 -6.0 -4.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 -0.5 -1.6 -1.2 -0.3 46.1 47.1 -2.9 -1.2 0.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 -0.8 -1.4 -0.6 0.0 50.6 50.3 -3.1 -1.5 0.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 -0.6 -1.1 -0.7 0.2 52.3 51.7 -3.0 -1.3 0.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 -0.9 -1.2 -1.6 0.3 53.4 52.9 -3.0 -1.5 -0.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 -0.6 -1.8 -2.2 -0.3 45.6 47.3 -3.1 -1.3 0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 -1.4 -1.7 -2.5 0.2 51.8 52.1 -3.3 -1.8 -0.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 -0.3 -1.3 -1.1 -0.2 47.9 48.4 -3.1 -1.1 0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 -2.0 -3.6 -3.3 -0.7 40.7 44.0 -4.4 -2.7 -1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 -3.7 -3.7 -2.9 0.7 56.7 56.3 -6.0 -4.3 -2.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 -0.5 -1.1 -0.4 0.0 50.4 50.0 -3.0 -1.2 0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------