***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.11.2014.-30.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 8.8 7.8 7.7 -0.3 46.9 47.2 6.2 8.2 9.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 8.4 8.1 7.8 0.2 51.8 51.6 6.1 7.9 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 9.8 9.3 8.2 0.1 51.7 51.4 7.2 9.2 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 0.3 1.0 3.7 -1.4 32.9 34.8 1.0 2.9 4.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 9.7 8.6 6.2 -0.3 46.2 46.7 7.1 9.0 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 8.7 7.7 5.6 -0.3 46.0 46.8 6.3 8.1 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 8.2 7.8 7.6 0.1 51.0 50.9 6.0 7.7 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 2.7 3.4 7.0 1.1 62.4 61.1 0.6 2.2 3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 10.2 9.9 7.6 0.2 52.2 51.9 7.7 9.6 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 9.3 9.7 7.6 0.8 58.9 57.9 6.9 8.8 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 9.9 9.3 6.7 0.1 50.9 50.9 7.1 9.2 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 9.7 9.9 6.9 0.6 57.7 56.9 7.3 9.1 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 9.8 9.9 7.2 0.5 56.3 55.7 7.1 9.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 9.9 10.9 9.2 1.4 63.8 62.1 7.3 9.3 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 4.8 4.9 4.3 -1.8 27.0 29.4 5.5 7.1 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 10.4 9.6 6.3 -0.1 48.9 49.3 7.7 9.7 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 7.7 7.4 7.4 0.2 52.2 52.0 5.5 7.2 8.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 8.3 8.2 8.3 1.7 67.1 65.2 5.1 6.7 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 8.8 8.7 8.1 0.4 54.2 53.7 6.4 8.2 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 8.0 8.5 7.4 2.3 74.2 71.6 3.9 5.8 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 9.8 9.0 7.8 -0.1 49.0 49.1 7.2 9.1 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 8.3 8.4 7.9 0.5 55.8 55.1 6.0 7.8 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 8.6 9.0 8.6 0.7 58.2 57.2 6.3 8.1 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 10.1 11.0 8.9 1.2 62.8 61.3 7.6 9.5 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.8 7.4 6.2 -0.6 42.8 43.5 6.4 8.1 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 9.0 9.0 6.3 0.4 55.4 54.9 6.8 8.5 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 9.7 8.9 7.3 -0.2 47.6 47.8 7.2 9.1 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 5.2 5.6 4.2 -1.5 30.9 33.1 5.9 7.6 9.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 8.0 8.5 8.4 2.4 74.0 71.5 3.8 5.7 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 8.5 8.1 7.9 0.1 51.1 50.9 6.2 7.9 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------