***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.12.2014.-07.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 7.3 7.4 7.0 0.7 58.2 56.4 4.9 6.6 8.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.9 7.0 1.2 62.7 59.8 4.2 5.8 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.7 7.9 7.0 0.8 58.6 56.6 5.2 7.0 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -0.3 1.9 4.1 -0.1 49.3 49.7 0.0 2.0 3.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.7 7.1 4.9 0.2 51.9 51.6 5.1 6.9 8.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.5 7.4 4.9 0.5 55.7 54.7 4.9 6.8 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.2 6.7 6.9 1.2 62.8 59.9 4.1 5.6 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 2.5 2.8 5.4 1.0 60.3 58.6 0.1 1.8 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.5 8.3 5.9 0.4 54.4 53.4 5.9 7.8 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 7.8 7.9 5.7 0.8 58.1 56.5 5.3 7.1 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.4 5.2 0.3 53.7 53.1 5.1 7.0 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 8.1 8.4 5.6 0.8 58.8 57.6 5.4 7.4 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 7.8 8.2 5.5 0.8 58.8 57.6 5.2 7.2 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 9.7 9.2 7.0 1.5 64.7 61.2 5.7 7.6 9.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.9 5.6 4.1 -0.2 47.7 48.7 4.2 5.8 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.4 8.0 5.0 0.3 53.4 53.1 5.6 7.6 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 6.7 6.3 6.8 1.3 64.1 60.8 3.7 5.2 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 7.2 6.7 6.1 1.3 63.5 60.8 3.9 5.5 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 6.7 7.3 7.1 1.2 62.5 59.6 4.3 6.0 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 6.7 6.5 5.0 1.7 67.6 64.6 2.4 4.4 6.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 7.7 7.5 6.3 0.4 54.7 53.7 5.2 7.0 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 7.5 7.1 6.9 1.4 64.6 61.1 4.2 5.8 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 6.9 7.5 7.2 1.2 62.7 59.7 4.7 6.3 7.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 8.6 9.2 6.8 1.2 61.9 59.2 6.1 7.9 9.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.4 5.3 0.5 55.4 54.0 4.3 5.9 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 9.0 8.4 5.8 1.2 63.4 61.6 5.5 7.1 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 7.5 7.7 6.4 0.8 58.8 56.8 5.1 6.8 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 4.4 6.2 4.1 -0.2 47.7 48.7 4.7 6.5 8.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 6.7 6.4 5.9 1.7 67.1 63.9 2.5 4.5 6.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.9 7.0 1.0 61.4 58.9 4.3 5.9 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------