***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.12.2014.-14.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 5.7 4.5 4.4 -0.4 45.5 46.1 3.2 4.9 6.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.1 4.3 -0.2 47.8 47.9 2.7 4.4 5.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 6.6 5.3 4.4 -0.4 45.9 46.4 3.9 5.8 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 -1.9 -0.8 1.7 -1.0 37.9 41.4 -1.4 0.6 2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.3 4.6 2.5 -0.7 41.4 43.5 3.6 5.6 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.8 4.2 2.3 -0.6 42.9 44.9 3.1 4.9 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.0 4.3 -0.2 48.2 48.2 2.5 4.2 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 0.5 -0.4 2.8 -0.3 46.9 47.4 -1.8 -0.1 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 6.9 5.3 3.4 -0.6 43.4 44.6 4.1 6.0 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 5.8 4.6 3.2 -0.4 45.8 46.5 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.4 4.8 2.7 -0.6 43.5 44.9 3.6 5.6 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 6.3 5.1 2.9 -0.3 46.1 46.8 3.5 5.5 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 6.2 4.9 2.8 -0.4 45.9 46.9 3.4 5.4 7.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 6.7 5.8 4.4 0.0 49.8 49.5 3.8 5.9 7.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.6 3.2 1.8 -1.1 35.4 40.1 3.0 4.5 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.6 5.2 2.4 -0.6 42.9 44.6 4.0 6.0 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 4.7 3.8 4.1 -0.2 47.5 47.6 2.4 4.0 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 4.0 3.3 3.5 -0.1 48.9 48.9 1.8 3.4 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 5.7 4.8 4.4 -0.2 47.9 48.0 3.2 5.0 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 3.3 2.8 2.3 0.2 51.8 51.1 0.7 2.6 4.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 6.6 5.0 3.8 -0.6 43.4 44.6 3.9 5.8 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 5.2 4.4 4.2 -0.2 47.8 47.7 2.9 4.6 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.6 4.8 4.6 -0.1 48.6 48.5 3.1 4.9 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 6.9 5.9 4.2 -0.2 48.0 48.2 4.1 6.1 8.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.8 4.1 2.8 -0.6 42.5 44.2 3.1 4.8 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.5 4.5 2.7 -0.4 45.7 47.0 3.3 4.8 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.3 5.1 3.8 -0.4 45.6 46.3 3.6 5.5 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.4 3.4 1.8 -1.1 36.8 40.8 3.0 4.7 6.3 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 2.8 2.3 3.2 0.1 51.5 50.9 0.4 2.2 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.2 4.4 -0.2 47.5 47.6 2.8 4.5 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------