***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.12.2014.-21.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 4.8 5.3 4.5 1.1 60.5 59.4 2.3 4.1 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 4.6 5.3 4.4 1.3 62.3 61.0 2.1 3.9 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.8 4.6 1.2 61.0 59.6 3.5 5.6 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 1.2 0.9 1.8 0.4 53.7 54.2 -1.6 0.5 2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.6 2.6 0.6 56.3 56.1 3.1 5.0 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 5.5 5.2 2.3 0.5 55.1 55.3 2.9 4.7 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 4.2 4.9 4.4 1.3 62.2 60.9 1.8 3.6 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 1.0 0.0 2.7 0.9 59.3 58.8 -2.2 -0.8 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.6 3.6 0.8 57.9 57.2 3.6 5.6 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 7.0 5.9 3.3 0.9 59.0 58.4 3.0 4.9 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 6.1 6.0 2.7 0.7 57.2 56.8 3.3 5.2 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 7.7 6.4 2.8 0.8 58.7 58.1 3.3 5.4 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 7.2 6.0 2.6 0.8 58.1 57.6 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 8.6 7.7 4.6 1.5 63.2 61.6 3.7 5.9 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.4 3.9 2.0 0.1 51.4 52.5 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.4 2.4 0.6 56.2 56.1 3.7 5.7 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 3.9 4.6 4.3 1.2 62.0 60.6 1.7 3.4 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 4.9 4.0 3.6 1.3 61.7 60.7 1.1 2.8 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 6.7 6.0 4.6 1.3 62.6 61.1 2.5 4.5 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 4.4 3.6 2.3 1.3 62.5 61.7 0.5 2.3 4.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.2 6.4 4.0 0.9 58.5 57.6 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 4.7 5.4 4.4 1.3 62.1 60.6 2.2 4.1 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 6.5 5.8 4.8 1.4 63.1 61.3 2.5 4.4 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 7.9 6.9 4.4 1.3 62.0 60.7 3.7 5.6 7.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 4.8 5.0 2.9 0.8 57.9 57.5 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.2 5.4 2.6 0.8 58.7 57.8 3.0 4.6 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 6.0 6.5 3.9 1.0 60.2 59.3 3.4 5.3 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.0 1.9 0.2 52.1 53.0 2.7 4.8 6.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 4.5 3.7 3.2 1.4 63.1 62.0 0.4 2.3 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 4.6 5.3 4.5 1.3 62.1 60.7 2.2 4.0 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------