***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.11.2014.-21.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 6.3 6.2 5.9 0.3 54.6 53.8 5.0 6.0 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.8 6.0 5.9 0.6 59.2 57.5 4.5 5.5 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 7.2 7.3 6.0 0.4 56.6 55.3 5.9 6.9 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 0.1 0.9 2.8 -0.5 41.2 43.6 0.4 1.5 2.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.5 4.1 -0.1 49.0 49.3 5.6 6.6 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.5 6.2 3.8 0.0 50.4 50.5 5.1 6.1 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 5.6 5.8 5.8 0.6 59.1 57.5 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 1.1 1.5 4.5 0.7 60.5 58.8 -0.3 0.8 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.7 7.5 5.2 0.2 53.2 52.6 6.2 7.3 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 6.8 6.9 5.0 0.5 58.1 56.7 5.5 6.5 7.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 7.1 6.9 4.3 0.1 52.2 51.8 5.7 6.7 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 7.2 7.3 4.6 0.5 57.8 56.5 5.8 6.9 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 7.0 7.1 4.5 0.5 57.0 56.0 5.6 6.7 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 7.5 8.1 6.3 1.1 65.0 62.4 6.1 7.2 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 4.2 4.6 3.0 -0.7 36.5 40.4 4.4 5.3 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.6 7.3 4.0 0.1 50.9 50.9 6.2 7.2 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 5.2 5.5 5.6 0.6 59.5 57.6 4.0 5.0 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 4.9 5.4 5.4 1.0 65.0 62.7 3.7 4.6 5.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 6.3 6.5 6.1 0.7 60.0 58.1 5.0 5.9 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 5.0 5.1 4.3 1.4 70.1 67.6 2.7 3.8 4.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 7.2 7.0 5.5 0.2 52.5 52.0 5.8 6.8 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 5.9 6.2 5.8 0.7 61.0 58.8 4.6 5.6 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 6.2 6.6 6.3 0.8 61.8 59.5 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 7.7 8.2 6.1 0.9 62.7 60.5 6.3 7.4 8.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.2 5.8 4.3 0.0 49.9 50.1 4.8 5.8 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 6.5 6.7 4.4 0.5 58.7 57.4 5.4 6.3 7.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.1 7.0 5.3 0.3 54.9 54.1 5.7 6.7 7.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 4.6 5.2 3.0 -0.7 38.8 42.0 4.9 5.9 6.8 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 4.7 4.9 5.2 1.4 70.0 67.4 2.7 3.7 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 5.9 6.0 6.0 0.5 58.3 56.8 4.6 5.6 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------