***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.11.2014.-30.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 3.0 3.4 5.8 50.1 38.6 33.5 2.6 5.4 9.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 6.7 5.0 7.4 67.0 49.1 41.5 2.7 5.2 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.5 4.7 6.4 56.2 42.1 35.6 3.2 6.4 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 6.1 9.0 8.1 64.4 45.6 39.9 6.3 10.0 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 3.1 3.6 5.6 45.8 34.8 29.5 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 3.3 5.4 6.9 57.9 45.6 35.7 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.5 5.0 7.7 71.2 50.7 42.9 2.4 4.9 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 6.6 9.6 7.3 58.9 45.8 37.7 6.6 10.7 15.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.0 4.3 6.7 57.7 43.5 36.9 2.8 5.6 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.3 6.7 7.4 61.5 46.0 38.0 4.2 7.7 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.2 5.0 6.4 56.8 44.5 36.3 2.9 6.2 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.2 6.6 6.7 57.9 46.1 38.2 4.0 7.5 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 3.3 4.8 5.7 46.3 39.8 31.0 3.5 7.2 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 4.2 5.7 7.1 54.9 39.5 34.0 4.3 8.4 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.8 10.0 10.2 80.1 55.5 47.3 4.2 8.3 14.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 3.1 4.9 6.1 51.9 42.4 34.3 3.2 6.5 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.9 5.9 8.2 76.4 52.7 43.9 3.1 5.4 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 4.5 6.4 7.5 56.9 41.1 34.4 4.6 8.6 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.9 5.1 7.1 63.3 47.2 39.9 2.7 5.7 10.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 4.8 6.7 8.5 49.3 40.1 33.1 5.1 9.5 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.1 4.2 6.4 55.0 41.2 35.3 2.9 5.8 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 8.6 6.2 7.9 68.2 49.1 40.6 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.9 4.3 6.9 58.7 43.4 37.2 2.7 5.6 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 4.0 5.6 7.2 57.7 40.4 34.4 4.2 7.7 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 2.7 2.8 5.7 43.1 33.3 29.1 2.8 5.7 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 3.0 4.4 5.8 46.2 40.4 32.3 3.3 6.1 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.0 3.5 6.3 50.7 38.2 33.3 2.7 5.9 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 4.7 8.1 8.5 70.2 49.5 42.1 4.7 8.2 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 7.0 9.8 7.7 52.9 39.7 33.0 7.6 13.8 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.1 4.4 6.9 62.6 46.3 39.4 2.4 5.1 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------