***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.12.2014.-07.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 3.3 7.0 9.4 67.1 49.4 38.1 3.6 7.2 12.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.9 6.8 9.8 76.0 54.0 41.5 2.9 5.9 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 3.2 7.8 9.8 72.8 51.5 40.2 3.5 7.4 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 4.4 11.0 12.9 88.2 57.7 45.7 4.5 8.6 14.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 4.0 7.7 9.9 72.2 49.6 39.5 4.0 7.8 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.2 8.2 12.2 89.0 58.0 46.9 2.7 6.0 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 2.7 6.2 9.5 73.9 53.5 40.9 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.2 11.4 11.3 78.3 51.9 42.9 5.8 10.8 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.2 6.6 10.0 73.7 50.5 39.8 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 3.8 7.7 10.8 76.0 50.6 41.0 3.6 7.5 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.8 7.9 9.7 75.2 50.3 41.3 3.6 7.8 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.7 9.4 10.1 77.4 52.1 43.2 3.7 8.6 16.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 4.2 8.4 9.8 73.5 50.9 41.9 3.9 8.1 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.8 9.8 11.1 74.8 50.7 41.3 5.4 9.6 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 4.2 18.8 17.8 111.4 67.1 51.9 3.6 8.9 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 3.7 8.2 10.0 77.3 52.2 42.6 3.7 7.6 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.3 8.2 9.6 79.6 56.4 43.5 3.1 6.5 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 4.3 8.0 11.8 73.9 50.2 40.7 4.3 8.0 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 3.7 7.7 9.7 75.8 53.5 41.6 3.9 6.9 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.8 8.4 14.5 72.4 48.9 40.9 4.4 8.8 15.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 3.8 7.4 9.6 71.5 50.0 38.7 4.0 7.5 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.6 8.4 10.0 82.9 56.4 44.5 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.7 7.2 9.7 74.9 53.0 42.2 3.8 6.6 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.8 8.8 10.9 74.1 51.0 40.8 4.7 8.6 13.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 3.3 6.6 10.6 69.7 50.8 39.6 3.6 6.5 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.5 7.9 11.0 80.9 54.7 45.3 2.9 6.5 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 3.5 7.3 9.9 66.6 49.5 38.5 3.9 7.4 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 3.2 11.1 14.5 100.1 62.1 48.7 3.0 6.8 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 6.3 11.0 12.7 71.8 48.7 39.7 6.2 11.6 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 3.4 7.1 9.6 72.8 52.5 40.3 3.6 6.5 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------