***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.12.2014.-14.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 2.5 5.8 9.5 84.6 57.3 45.7 2.4 4.6 7.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.1 7.2 9.3 83.5 57.9 46.9 2.8 5.5 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.1 7.4 10.0 84.2 56.8 45.9 3.0 5.8 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.3 11.9 12.4 96.2 61.2 49.2 4.9 8.7 13.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.6 11.6 92.4 59.2 47.8 4.4 7.5 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.8 7.2 12.5 93.9 60.7 49.1 3.0 5.2 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.7 8.1 9.0 81.5 56.8 46.1 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.8 11.8 87.3 58.1 49.0 9.3 13.5 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.5 11.7 90.9 58.3 47.8 3.3 5.9 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.4 12.1 89.6 58.3 48.8 5.0 8.4 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.4 8.9 11.2 93.8 60.4 49.2 3.6 6.6 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.6 11.1 91.3 59.9 49.5 4.6 7.5 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.8 9.0 11.5 91.0 59.6 48.2 4.3 7.1 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.4 12.2 12.3 87.3 57.3 47.7 5.1 9.6 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.6 10.5 14.5 103.8 65.0 52.5 2.6 5.8 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.8 9.5 11.3 94.8 61.0 49.3 3.6 6.7 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.6 8.8 9.5 87.1 59.5 48.3 3.3 6.5 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.6 9.3 12.6 85.9 57.0 48.4 4.9 7.8 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.0 8.8 9.6 83.6 57.3 46.5 3.6 6.9 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.0 13.8 79.5 55.6 47.8 5.3 8.7 13.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.9 8.3 10.8 89.3 58.1 47.1 3.6 6.5 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.0 9.4 10.1 87.7 58.9 47.6 3.5 6.9 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.4 8.7 10.2 84.1 57.0 47.1 3.4 6.9 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.0 11.7 85.6 56.8 47.2 5.1 9.0 14.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 2.7 5.9 10.6 83.9 55.9 44.5 2.6 4.9 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.9 10.1 11.6 89.5 59.8 49.2 4.5 7.7 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.4 5.4 9.7 79.9 54.6 43.7 2.1 4.5 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.4 9.1 13.2 100.8 63.3 51.5 3.0 5.9 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.9 14.2 13.1 83.4 56.3 48.0 8.0 12.4 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.3 7.5 9.3 82.8 56.9 46.0 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------