***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.12.2014.-21.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 5.9 12.6 9.2 96.8 61.7 49.6 5.6 9.4 14.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.3 10.1 8.5 94.6 62.1 48.6 4.5 7.4 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 13.5 14.0 8.7 90.4 59.8 49.6 6.1 10.5 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 6.7 14.5 11.4 102.1 64.5 50.3 6.8 10.6 14.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 6.2 13.8 10.2 95.9 62.2 49.9 6.0 10.1 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.9 11.7 10.0 95.6 63.0 48.8 4.6 8.1 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 9.3 10.1 8.5 94.8 62.1 47.7 4.7 7.5 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 9.3 17.9 9.9 93.0 60.9 50.8 9.1 14.0 20.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.7 11.0 9.9 92.0 60.2 49.8 5.0 8.4 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 6.1 13.1 10.0 89.9 59.5 50.2 5.7 10.0 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 5.0 11.8 9.4 96.3 62.4 50.2 4.7 8.3 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.7 11.4 9.3 98.0 62.8 50.6 4.3 7.8 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 7.2 14.8 9.8 99.2 63.5 49.4 7.0 10.9 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.0 17.1 9.8 89.1 59.0 50.6 8.0 13.3 20.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 5.3 15.4 12.7 108.7 67.3 51.5 4.9 9.1 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.6 12.6 9.6 100.1 63.8 49.8 5.5 8.9 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.8 9.7 8.4 96.7 62.8 47.3 4.2 7.0 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.6 11.7 10.2 84.5 56.9 48.7 5.2 9.5 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.6 10.4 8.6 94.1 61.6 49.4 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 15.5 15.4 12.3 88.9 58.9 49.4 7.1 12.1 18.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 5.7 12.4 9.5 92.6 60.0 49.5 5.2 9.3 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.8 8.9 9.0 99.4 63.3 49.1 3.5 6.1 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.6 10.0 8.7 92.9 60.7 50.6 4.3 7.5 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.6 13.9 9.4 85.8 57.6 49.4 6.0 11.1 17.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.7 11.7 10.8 98.2 62.5 49.4 3.5 7.5 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 5.8 12.7 10.0 99.1 63.5 49.2 5.7 9.1 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.6 12.4 10.1 97.5 62.1 49.3 4.2 8.3 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 5.4 12.7 11.5 104.6 65.7 50.7 5.3 8.7 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 22.0 21.1 10.9 85.1 57.2 48.7 10.8 17.6 26.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.9 10.8 8.5 93.2 61.3 48.8 4.9 8.0 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------