***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.11.2014.-21.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 25.2 29.2 34.0 73.2 36.5 35.4 27.4 36.6 47.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 24.2 30.1 35.0 79.5 42.5 39.3 25.5 33.6 42.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 29.3 33.8 34.8 75.3 37.3 36.4 31.1 42.6 55.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 35.0 45.1 44.8 87.4 46.5 43.6 36.5 47.7 59.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 33.0 36.5 37.2 75.9 36.0 36.5 35.0 44.3 54.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 27.4 33.8 41.5 84.2 44.4 42.5 27.7 36.8 47.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 25.2 31.5 34.7 79.5 43.2 39.8 26.6 34.8 43.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 48.5 54.4 40.4 79.0 39.8 39.1 50.1 61.2 72.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 26.9 31.0 38.4 78.5 38.1 37.9 28.4 37.1 46.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 35.8 41.1 40.3 79.2 38.9 38.5 37.9 47.2 57.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 31.9 37.6 36.8 79.9 40.5 39.9 33.4 43.1 53.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 34.7 40.7 37.2 80.4 41.6 40.6 35.4 46.0 57.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 35.5 38.9 36.9 76.4 38.3 38.0 35.9 46.1 57.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 39.9 44.7 40.4 76.2 36.5 36.1 42.0 55.4 71.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 32.5 56.7 55.3 101.5 58.5 51.0 32.1 47.6 66.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 29.9 36.0 37.1 80.0 41.1 40.2 31.5 41.5 53.0 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 24.7 33.7 35.8 84.3 47.0 42.0 26.6 35.5 44.9 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 35.4 38.9 42.1 75.3 35.2 35.3 37.9 46.9 56.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 26.5 32.4 34.9 78.4 41.1 38.6 28.0 37.8 48.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 38.4 41.7 49.1 71.6 34.0 33.8 41.0 53.0 66.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 29.0 33.7 36.3 76.6 37.2 36.7 31.4 40.7 50.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 26.7 35.5 36.9 83.7 45.5 41.0 28.5 38.1 49.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 26.8 31.3 35.5 76.8 38.9 37.7 28.2 37.3 47.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 37.8 42.0 39.2 75.6 36.0 35.9 40.3 51.3 63.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 27.5 30.3 37.7 72.4 34.5 34.4 29.7 37.3 45.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 30.9 34.9 38.3 78.1 40.0 39.0 31.3 40.5 50.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 27.0 30.6 36.1 72.3 35.5 34.8 29.0 39.0 50.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 30.6 43.3 47.8 94.0 52.1 47.4 31.5 41.9 53.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 52.8 57.5 44.3 73.0 33.7 33.8 56.8 71.8 88.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 25.0 29.6 34.4 77.0 40.2 37.9 25.9 35.0 45.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------