***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2013.-01.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 87 13 0 100 9999.0 -1.1 -1.1 -3.2 16.8 18.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 81 19 0 100 -1.5 -1.6 -1.3 -2.9 20.3 22.0 -0.3 1.3 2.7 30 Becej 27400G00 89 11 0 100 -0.1 -0.5 -1.5 -3.2 15.6 18.3 1.4 2.9 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 -5.5 -5.6 -3.5 -2.5 21.5 24.2 -4.2 -2.6 -1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 82 18 0 100 -2.3 -2.7 -3.1 -3.0 17.8 20.9 -0.9 0.8 2.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 83 17 0 100 -3.1 -3.5 -4.8 -2.7 17.4 21.7 -1.7 0.0 1.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 78 22 0 100 -1.4 -1.4 -1.2 -2.8 21.5 23.2 -0.3 1.1 2.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 91 9 0 100 -7.4 -8.9 -5.2 -4.0 9.2 13.0 -5.8 -4.2 -2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 -1.0 -1.5 -2.4 -2.7 18.4 22.3 0.1 1.5 2.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 85 15 0 100 -2.1 -3.2 -4.4 -3.7 12.2 16.1 -0.6 1.0 2.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 84 16 0 100 -2.7 -3.3 -3.4 -3.0 16.4 19.8 -1.2 0.5 2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 88 12 0 100 -3.8 -4.8 -4.0 -3.3 12.7 16.6 -2.1 -0.4 1.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 86 14 0 100 -3.0 -4.2 -4.2 -3.2 12.1 17.1 -1.5 0.1 1.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 87 13 0 100 -0.9 -1.8 -3.4 -3.8 12.3 16.3 0.3 1.6 2.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 -1.3 -1.1 -1.6 -1.8 28.4 30.4 -0.6 1.0 2.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 82 18 0 100 -1.7 -2.3 -3.7 -2.8 16.2 20.4 -0.3 1.4 2.9 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 -1.6 -1.5 -1.4 -2.7 23.1 24.7 -0.6 0.8 2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 89 11 0 100 -4.1 -5.6 -5.8 -4.3 9.4 13.7 -2.6 -1.1 0.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 83 17 0 100 -1.4 -1.5 -1.3 -2.8 19.4 21.3 -0.2 1.3 2.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 94 6 0 100 -8.1 -11.4 -7.9 -5.2 5.0 8.5 -5.8 -3.8 -1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 85 15 0 100 -1.6 -2.1 -1.7 -3.1 16.1 19.2 -0.2 1.3 2.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 80 20 0 100 -1.8 -1.7 -1.2 -2.7 21.8 23.3 -0.6 0.8 2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 84 16 0 100 -1.4 -1.6 -1.6 -2.8 18.3 20.8 -0.2 1.2 2.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 87 13 0 100 -1.9 -2.8 -3.6 -3.6 12.0 16.4 -0.6 0.8 2.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 83 17 0 100 -1.6 -1.9 -2.5 -3.1 18.0 20.5 -0.1 1.5 3.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 90 10 0 100 -2.5 -4.2 -4.6 -3.7 8.2 13.1 -1.0 0.5 2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 84 16 0 100 -1.7 -1.9 -1.7 -3.0 18.3 20.6 0.0 1.8 3.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 -2.9 -2.9 -2.7 -2.3 23.2 26.0 -1.8 -0.2 1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 90 10 0 100 -4.9 -6.8 -6.6 -4.5 8.1 12.4 -3.2 -1.5 0.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 85 15 0 100 -1.4 -1.5 -1.2 -3.0 18.6 20.6 0.0 1.5 2.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------