***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2013.-22.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 -1.5 -1.3 -1.6 24.5 30.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 -1.7 -1.8 -1.5 -1.4 27.3 32.5 -1.5 -0.6 0.2 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 0.0 -0.1 -1.5 -1.5 23.9 29.6 0.3 1.1 1.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 -5.5 -5.7 -4.2 -1.7 24.2 29.7 -5.1 -4.2 -3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 -2.3 -2.6 -3.7 -1.8 22.4 28.2 -1.9 -1.0 -0.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 -2.9 -3.2 -5.1 -1.8 21.4 29.7 -2.5 -1.6 -0.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 -1.7 -1.8 -1.4 -1.4 28.2 33.5 -1.5 -0.7 0.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 -7.0 -7.7 -5.1 -2.3 16.2 24.1 -6.5 -5.6 -4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 -1.5 -1.6 -2.8 -1.6 23.4 29.2 -1.1 -0.3 0.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 -2.2 -2.5 -4.4 -2.2 18.2 25.2 -1.7 -0.8 -0.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 -2.3 -2.6 -3.9 -1.8 21.5 28.3 -1.9 -1.0 -0.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 -3.0 -3.4 -4.4 -2.1 18.4 26.9 -2.5 -1.7 -0.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 -2.7 -3.3 -4.6 -2.1 17.5 27.0 -2.2 -1.2 -0.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 -1.2 -1.6 -3.3 -2.0 18.9 25.2 -0.8 -0.1 0.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 -2.1 -2.0 -3.1 -1.3 29.0 33.9 -1.8 -0.9 -0.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 -1.5 -1.9 -4.4 -1.8 20.8 28.6 -1.1 -0.3 0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 -1.9 -1.9 -1.5 -1.3 29.5 34.3 -1.7 -0.9 -0.2 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 -4.3 -4.9 -5.3 -2.5 15.3 22.8 -3.6 -2.6 -1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 -1.6 -1.7 -1.5 -1.4 26.2 31.5 -1.3 -0.6 0.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 -7.1 -8.1 -6.8 -2.8 12.5 20.6 -6.3 -5.2 -4.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 -1.8 -1.9 -2.0 -1.6 23.3 28.9 -1.3 -0.5 0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 -1.9 -1.9 -1.5 -1.4 28.0 32.7 -1.7 -0.9 -0.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 -1.7 -1.9 -1.8 -1.5 24.7 30.3 -1.4 -0.7 0.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 -1.9 -2.2 -3.4 -2.0 19.1 25.7 -1.5 -0.8 -0.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 -1.9 -2.1 -3.2 -1.8 22.1 28.0 -1.4 -0.5 0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 -2.5 -3.0 -4.5 -2.2 16.1 25.8 -1.9 -1.1 -0.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 -1.5 -1.7 -2.1 -1.6 23.6 29.5 -1.2 -0.3 0.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 -3.1 -3.2 -3.8 -1.5 25.9 31.5 -2.8 -2.0 -1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 -4.6 -5.3 -6.0 -2.6 14.1 21.9 -4.1 -3.2 -2.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 -1.4 -1.6 -1.4 -1.4 26.3 31.7 -1.2 -0.4 0.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------