***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2013.-01.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 9999.0 2.9 2.3 -5.5 7.6 9.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 99 1 0 100 3.8 2.8 2.4 -4.9 10.8 12.7 5.9 7.6 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 100 0 0 100 4.7 2.9 2.2 -5.6 7.7 9.6 7.0 8.8 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 -1.4 -2.5 -0.1 -4.9 10.2 11.9 0.8 2.5 4.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 4.6 2.5 0.4 -5.9 6.9 8.5 6.9 8.7 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 99 1 0 100 4.0 1.2 -0.9 -6.6 4.6 6.2 6.2 7.9 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 99 1 0 100 3.6 2.7 2.4 -4.9 10.9 12.8 5.8 7.5 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 100 0 0 100 -1.6 -4.4 -1.0 -6.7 4.0 5.2 0.4 2.0 3.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 5.0 3.0 1.4 -5.9 7.1 8.7 7.4 9.3 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 100 0 0 100 4.4 1.8 -0.2 -6.8 5.0 6.2 6.7 8.5 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 100 0 0 100 4.3 1.8 0.3 -6.2 6.1 7.6 6.9 8.9 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 100 0 0 100 4.8 2.1 -0.2 -6.2 5.0 6.4 7.0 8.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 4.2 0.8 -0.2 -6.6 4.2 5.8 6.7 8.8 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 4.8 2.7 1.1 -6.6 6.8 8.1 7.1 9.0 10.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 89 11 0 100 4.1 3.6 2.0 -3.7 15.4 17.1 5.5 6.9 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 100 0 0 100 5.0 2.5 0.1 -6.2 5.9 7.5 7.4 9.3 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 96 4 0 100 3.2 2.6 2.3 -4.6 13.3 14.9 5.2 6.9 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 3.1 0.4 -1.0 -7.5 3.8 4.8 5.0 6.5 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 100 0 0 100 4.0 2.9 2.4 -5.1 10.1 12.0 6.2 7.9 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 100 0 0 100 1.3 -2.9 -2.7 -7.7 2.1 3.1 3.6 5.4 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 4.6 2.6 1.9 -5.8 7.3 9.0 7.0 8.8 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 96 4 0 100 3.8 3.1 2.5 -4.6 12.8 14.4 5.8 7.5 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 100 0 0 100 4.1 2.7 2.3 -5.3 9.1 11.0 6.2 7.9 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 100 0 0 100 5.1 2.7 0.7 -6.8 5.6 6.9 7.4 9.2 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 4.0 2.1 0.8 -5.8 6.9 8.5 6.1 7.8 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 4.6 1.4 -0.6 -6.2 3.2 5.1 6.7 8.3 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 100 0 0 100 4.7 2.7 1.6 -5.8 6.9 8.6 7.0 8.8 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 96 4 0 100 3.8 3.0 0.8 -4.7 12.1 13.8 5.7 7.3 8.8 29 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 1.4 -2.2 -1.7 -7.6 3.1 4.1 3.7 5.5 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 100 0 0 100 3.9 2.7 2.5 -5.1 9.5 11.5 6.0 7.7 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------