***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2013.-08.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 3.6 4.3 -1.7 32.2 34.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.2 4.2 4.3 -1.3 35.5 38.1 3.9 5.6 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 4.5 5.0 4.4 -1.5 33.5 35.9 5.0 6.8 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 -0.8 -0.3 2.3 -1.7 31.7 33.8 -0.1 1.9 3.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 4.2 4.7 2.7 -1.9 30.4 32.7 5.0 6.8 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 4.1 4.1 2.1 -2.2 27.9 31.5 4.7 6.5 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.1 4.0 4.1 -1.4 34.6 37.3 3.9 5.4 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 -0.7 -0.5 2.3 -1.9 29.2 32.1 -0.1 1.6 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 4.9 5.5 3.5 -1.8 31.0 33.4 5.7 7.6 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 4.3 4.7 2.9 -1.9 29.8 32.4 5.1 6.8 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 4.2 4.5 2.6 -2.0 29.1 31.6 5.0 6.8 8.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 4.5 4.6 2.5 -2.1 28.1 31.2 5.2 7.2 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 4.2 4.2 2.2 -2.3 26.4 30.0 5.1 6.9 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.1 5.7 3.9 -1.5 34.3 36.5 5.5 7.4 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.6 4.2 2.8 -1.4 34.6 36.5 4.0 5.6 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 4.6 4.8 2.3 -2.1 28.2 31.0 5.4 7.4 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.6 4.0 4.2 -1.1 37.5 39.9 3.6 5.0 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 3.0 3.4 2.8 -1.8 30.9 33.6 3.6 5.1 6.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.6 4.3 4.4 -1.3 35.5 38.1 4.0 5.8 7.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 1.5 2.1 1.4 -1.7 31.2 34.3 2.4 4.3 6.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 4.4 5.0 4.0 -1.7 31.9 34.3 5.1 6.8 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 6.3 4.6 4.3 -1.1 38.2 40.6 4.1 5.7 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.2 4.6 4.5 -1.4 35.2 37.7 4.4 6.0 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 5.1 5.8 3.8 -1.7 32.8 35.1 5.8 7.7 9.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 3.4 3.9 2.8 -1.8 30.6 33.3 4.1 5.7 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 4.7 4.5 2.2 -2.2 25.5 29.9 5.3 6.8 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 4.1 4.6 3.6 -1.8 30.9 33.8 4.8 6.6 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 4.0 4.5 2.6 -1.6 32.9 34.9 4.5 6.3 8.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 1.6 2.2 2.3 -1.7 31.6 34.4 2.4 4.3 6.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.7 4.1 4.3 -1.4 34.3 37.0 4.0 5.6 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------